By Abdullahi A. Nor

Somalia is standing on the edge of a political abyss

Not because the country lacks talent, hope, or the will to survive—but because its leader, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has once again pushed the state toward a point where institutions buckle, trust evaporates, and the public watches the republic drift into the hands of those who treat it as private property.

The upcoming meeting in Kismayo—bringing together the only two Federal Member States with a legitimate constitutional mandate, Puntland and Jubbaland, alongside the newly consolidated Somali Salvation Forum—may be the final opportunity to pull Somalia back from the tipping point. Unlike the endless conferences that came before it, the stakes today are existential. This gathering is no longer about political positioning. It is about whether Somalia still has the capacity to correct its course.

And Somalis know exactly why this moment feels different.

A Nation Scarred by Land Theft

Walk through Mogadishu and the story is written in rubble. Public land seized. Homes razed. Families pushed into dust-filled IDP camps, their lives compressed into makeshift tents as private developers—often protected or enabled by the state’s President—turn public property into private fortune.

This is not corruption in the abstract. It is corruption with an address, a bulldozer, and a human body count.

Under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration, accusations of systematic land expropriation have reached unprecedented levels. Public beaches, strategic parcels, government property, even entire residential neighborhoods have been handed over, sold, or fenced off by politically connected businessmen. Whole communities have been evicted with no plan, no compensation, no dignity.

If justice means anything, this must be the starting point.
And other nations offer a striking comparison.

In Bangladesh, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina—once one of the most powerful women in South Asia—was sentenced last week to 21 years in prison, on top of the death sentence, for illegally acquiring just three land plots.

Somalia’s land seizures number in the hundreds, displacing hundreds of thousands.

If Dhaka can hold a former leader accountable, why can’t Mogadishu?
If Bangladesh can set a precedent, Somalia’s opposition must have the courage to say the quiet part aloud:

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud should face legal proceedings for land-related abuses—either domestically or, if national institutions continue to fail, through international mechanisms.

Accountability is not revenge. It is the only path left to rebuild trust.

The Myth of “One Person, One Vote”

The government promises “one person, one vote” in 2026 without any form of consultations, wrapping the phrase in the vocabulary of democracy. But the reality is unavoidably clear:
Somalia is not ready.

More than half the country lacks secure polling stations.
Millions have no national IDs.
Electoral institutions are politicized.
Federal Member States with mandate to rule openly reject the model.
Al-Shabaab controls vast areas where elections cannot even be imagined.

Pushing OPOV now is not democratic reform—it is centralization disguised as progress.

Somalis have been through this before: every time a president pushes a political model unilaterally, conflict follows.

What Somalia needs is the only model that has worked in the last 15 years:
a structured, transparent, reformed indirect election system that respects federalism, prevents manipulation, and avoids bloodshed.

Democracy cannot be built by decree.
It must be negotiated, owned, and trusted.

The Constitution Cannot Belong to One Man

The provisional constitution is Somalia’s only anchor—imperfect, incomplete, but the single document preventing the country from sliding into personalized rule.

When President Hassan Sheikh began altering it unilaterally, bypassing quorum, ignoring Federal Member States, and sidelining political stakeholders, he crossed a line no leader should cross.

This is why Puntland and Jubbaland withdrew from cooperation.
This is why the federation is fracturing.
This is why the country feels leaderless.

The Kismayo meeting must demand an immediate suspension of unilateral amendments and restore a consensus-driven constitutional process, or Somalia will enter 2026 with a document no one accepts—and a presidency no one trusts.

The Security Question Somalia Can No Longer Avoid

ATMIS/AUSSOM forces are withdrawing.
The security vacuum is widening.
Al-Shabaab is regrouping in central and southern regions.
Federal and state forces operate in parallel, not in unity.

If Kismayo produces no unified proposal, Somalia may wake up within half a year to a security landscape even more fragmented than the political one.

The opposition must push for:

A) Joint federal–state command structure,
2) An integrated national security architecture, and
3) A transition plan that ensures no vacuum emerges as foreign forces depart.

Security cannot be built on political rivalry.
It requires a national pact.

Somalia’s Opposition Must Decide: Crisis or Consensus?

For the first time in years, the opposition has leverage, legitimacy, and public support. The Kismayo conference could:

• restore constitutional order,
• propose a realistic electoral roadmap,
• reclaim public land stolen under the state’s watch,
• and re-establish the federation on a foundation of equality and trust.

Or it could dissolve into another meeting, another communiqué, another lost opportunity.

If Kismayo fails, Somalia will not simply stagnate—it will slide backward, deeper into impunity, centralization, external interference, and insecurity.

Somalia Deserves Better

Somalia is not broken. It is being broken—deliberately, systematically, and for profit.
But nations do not collapse overnight. They collapse when their leaders stop believing the public deserves accountability, dignity, and truth.

Kismayo is not just a political gathering.
It is the final call for Somalia’s political class to defend the republic before it dissolves into something far harder to recover.

Somalia’s future depends on whether the opposition has the courage to speak the truth, demand justice, and choose consensus over crisis.

History will remember what happens in Kismayo.

Abdullahi A. Nor
Email: abdulahinor231@gmail.com