By Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh

For decades, Raila Odinga has been Kenya’s most polarizing political figure—a fighter, a reformist, a freedom crusader, and, to his critics, a perpetual troublemaker. He has challenged governments, survived detention, led mass protests, and redefined opposition politics. Yet, despite all his efforts, he has never ruled Kenya.

Many believe this is no coincidence. A curse, allegedly placed upon him by his own father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, has haunted him for years. Jaramogi, Kenya’s first Vice President and one of the country’s most influential opposition leaders, is said to have declared that his son would never sit on the throne.

And now, after Raila’s humiliating loss in the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship race to Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, a new, unsettling question has emerged: Has the curse gone international

The Curse of Jaramogi: A Political Hex That Won’t Let Go?

Jaramogi Oginga Odinga was a visionary, a man who fought fiercely for Kenya’s independence and later became the face of opposition politics. He had strong principles and an unwavering belief in justice. But he was also a man of deep convictions—convictions that sometimes clashed with those of his son, Raila.

The alleged curse is said to have been cast in the late 1990s, when Raila made a shocking political move: He aligned himself with then-President Daniel arap Moi, a man Jaramogi had spent his life opposing. For Jaramogi, this was an unforgivable betrayal, and in a fit of anger, he is said to have declared that Raila would never rule Kenya.

Whether one believes in curses or not, Raila’s political career has followed an eerily consistent pattern—a lifetime of coming close, only to be denied at the last moment.

• 1997: Raila ran for president but finished a distant third.
• 2007: He was widely believed to have won, but Mwai Kibaki was controversially declared the victor. The country erupted into violence, leading to a power-sharing deal where Raila became Prime Minister—but not President.
• 2013 & 2017: He lost to Uhuru Kenyatta in both elections. The 2017 results were annulled by the Supreme Court, but his boycott of the repeat election sealed his fate.
• 2022: With the full backing of outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila was widely expected to finally clinch victory. Instead, he was defeated by William Ruto, a man many had considered an underdog.

At every turn, just when victory seemed certain, something went wrong. The curse, it seemed, would never let him win.

And now, even beyond Kenya’s borders, it has crossed into continental politics, dealing him yet another devastating blow.

AU Defeat: When a Curse Goes Global

Following his 2022 presidential defeat, Raila set his sights on a new prize—the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship. This was supposed to be his moment of redemption, an opportunity to solidify his legacy beyond Kenya.

With the backing of President William Ruto and several African leaders, Raila was seen as the frontrunner. Given his long history as a Pan-Africanist and his diplomatic experience, few believed he could lose.

Yet, despite his credentials and the might of Kenya’s diplomatic machine behind him, he was defeated by Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf—a candidate from a nation with fewer than a million people.

For many, this was more than just a loss—it was an outright humiliation. How could Raila, a giant of African politics, lose to a candidate from one of the continent’s smallest countries?

Some pointed to diplomatic maneuvering. Others blamed Kenya’s failure to consolidate enough regional support. But for those who believe in Jaramogi’s curse, this was simply further proof that Raila is destined to fight endlessly, only to watch victory slip through his fingers.

It is one thing to lose in Kenya. But to lose on the international stage as well? That’s another level of misfortune.

Raila’s Next Move: A Return to the Streets?

With his AU ambitions crushed, the big question now is: What next for Raila Odinga?

His critics hoped this would be the moment he finally retired from politics. At 80 years old, having fought and lost so many battles, many believed he would step away and enjoy his twilight years. But those who know Raila understand that retirement is not in his DNA. He thrives in the trenches, in opposition, in resistance. And that is exactly what worries President William Ruto.

Sources inside State House indicate that Ruto is deeply concerned about Raila’s return to Kenyan politics. The president knows that with Raila back in action, mass protests, economic disruptions, and political turmoil could follow. A senior government official recently expressed these concerns bluntly: “This man is an 80-year-old expert in loss and civil unrest. He has nothing to lose, and that makes him dangerous.”

Kenya’s economy is already struggling, with high taxes, rising cost of living, and growing discontent among citizens. Ruto, who is still trying to solidify his grip on power, does not want Raila back in the streets, rallying the people against him.

But history suggests that this is exactly what will happen. Raila has never faded into the background after a loss—he always comes back, demanding reforms, leading protests, and shaking up the system.

A Curse or Just Political Tragedy?

While some believe Raila’s fate is tied to a supernatural curse, others argue that his misfortunes are simply the result of political realities.

Kenya’s presidency has historically remained within a select elite circle—the Kenyatta, Moi, and Kibaki factions. Raila, despite his influence, has always been seen as an outsider, a disruptor. The system has never truly embraced him.

Then there are his own political miscalculations. At times, he has relied too much on state backing (as in 2022), expecting endorsements to secure victory. Other times, his strategies have failed to account for last-minute shifts in voter sentiment.

Yet, despite all these explanations, one undeniable fact remains:
No other African leader has come so close to power so many times, only to be denied at the very last moment.

With 2027 fast approaching, the biggest question now is:

Will Raila defy the so-called curse and take one last shot at the presidency, or is he destined to fight forever without ever ruling?

Whatever the answer, one thing is clear—Raila Odinga is not done yet.

Abdikarim H Abdi Buh
Email: abdikarimbuh@yahoo.com

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