By Djama Mahamoud Ali

Somalia stands at a critical juncture. The constitutional terms of the president and both houses of the parliament have expired, and no agreement exists between the federal government and the opposition on the path forward. Without a negotiated solution, the country faces the immediate risk of a constitutional vacuum and a slide into widespread armed conflict. The recent meeting under the auspices of the international community from the 13th to the 15th of May 2026 ended without agreement, underscoring the urgency of decisive action.

The talks between the government and the opposition failed because the president refused to make any concessions. He rejected to accept the expiration of his mandate, rejected the rejection of his unilateral constitutional changes, and insisted on remaining in office on the basis of a constitution he changed without broad consensus. His proposal is to hold elections after one year under the same framework currently being implemented in Baydhabo. An election conducted after he illegally evicted the president of the South West State and wants to install handpicked candidates.

This approach has already produced violent consequences in Baydhabo. Fighting is ongoing, and the population is being displaced. There are credible reports of mass killings carried out by both government forces and citizens defending their state against unlawful elections. The situation in Baydhabo demonstrates what happens when one actor attempts to impose an electoral process by force without legitimacy.

The opposition has rejected the president’s proposal because it recognizes that it is designed to perpetuate his hold on power rather than restore constitutional order. They understand If the Baydhabo model is extended nationwide, the country will face the same scenario seen in Baydhabo: armed resistance, civilian displacement, and fragmentation of state authority and Hassan Sheikh and his team’s orchestrated return to power. Somalia cannot afford a repeat of this pattern across its federal member states. The failure to reach agreement means the country is now operating without a constitutional basis for executive and legislative authority, creating a vacuum that armed groups and spoilers can exploit.

The Ideal Solution: An Inclusive Caretaker Government 

The only viable path to prevent total collapse is the immediate installation of a caretaker government composed of representatives from the opposition and moderate members of the current government. This government would have a single mandate: to lead the country to free, fair, and inclusive elections conducted according to the existing constitutional framework prior to unilateral amendments.

Under the Somali constitutional order, the Prime Minister holds responsibility for overseeing the electoral process. Empowering a caretaker administration under the Prime Minister’s authority provides both constitutional continuity and political neutrality. It removes the incentive for the incumbent president to manipulate the process for personal gain and gives all political actors a stake in a credible transition.

The Role of the International Community 

The international community has invested significant political, financial, and security resources in stabilizing Somalia over the past two decades. Allowing the country to descend into chaos because one individual seeks to impose his will by force would waste that investment and destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. Immediate International Community intervention is required:

• Reject any electoral process conducted under the unilateral changes and outside constitutional consensus.
• Support the formation of an inclusive caretaker government with a clear, time-bound mandate for elections.
• Use diplomatic, financial, and political leverage to ensure both government and opposition participate in good faith.
• Monitor and protect civilians in conflict zones such as Baydhabo to prevent further atrocities.

Waiting until after the country descends into full-scale conflict will make stabilization exponentially more difficult and costly.

Conclusion 

Somalia cannot survive another cycle of constitutional violation and forced elections. The events in Baydhabo show the direct link between unilateral action and armed conflict. The only way to prevent a nationwide constitutional vacuum and civil war is to establish an inclusive caretaker government now, under the Prime Minister’s constitutional responsibility, to oversee a legitimate electoral process.

The international community must act immediately, not after the country becomes ungovernable. The choice is between a managed transition and national.

Djama Mahamoud Ali
Email: djama_m@yahoo.com