By Abdiqani Haji Abdi

When President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud returned to power in May 2022, many Somalis hoped his second term would bring reconciliation, strategic leadership, and recovery from years of political division. Instead, what followed has been marked by unplanned military campaigns, institutional decay, and an unprecedented erosion ofpublic trust.

In less than three years, Somalia has witnessed the collapse of its elite national forces, the rise of mass displacement, and the alienation of nearly all federal member states — a sequence of failures many attributes directly to Hassan Sheikh’s leadership.

A Miscalculated War Against Al-Shabaab

One of President Hassan’s earliest and most consequential decisions was the launch of an unplanned offensive against Al-Shabaab in central Somalia. The campaign, declared without military and logistical preparation, intelligence coordination, or strategic planning, ended disastrously.

Within months, entire battalions of the Somali National Army were decimated, and civilian militias recruited hastily to support them were left exposed and unprotected. Following the defeat, many of these militias, demoralized and leaderless, fell into the hands of Al-Shabaab, strengthening the very insurgency the government had vowed to destroy.

Military analysts note that the offensive lacked even the most basic prerequisites for success — supply lines, command structure, or regional coordination. “It was a politically motivated campaign, not a strategic one,” said one retired officer. “It cost the country its most capable units.”

The elite forces annihilated in the offensive were among those recruited, trained, and equipped under President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s administration. Their destruction has left Somalia’s security architecture hollowed out, undermining years of investment and partnership with international allies.

Puntland’s Model of Strategic Discipline

In stark contrast, Facing an ISIS insurgency entrenched in its mountainous northern regions, Puntland’s security forces successfully eradicated the threat through coordinated operations, intelligence sharing, and local engagement — all without external intervention or significant casualties.

Analysts have pointed to Puntland’s campaign as a model of strategic clarity and leadership, underscoring the importance of planning in counterterrorism operations. “Where Puntland planned, Mogadishu improvised,” one security expert observed. “The results speak for themselves.”

From Counterterrorism to Civil Conflict

As if the military blunder against Al-Shabaab were not enough, President Hassan turned what remained of Somalia’s armed forces toward a new and dangerous front — an internal confrontation with Jubaland.

The president’s decision to deploy federal troops against Jubaland’s Darawiish forces — a well-trained regional unit — marked a turning point in the deterioration of intergovernmental relations. The confrontation ended humiliatingly for Mogadishu: the federal army was swiftly defeated in a single day’s battle, forcing the survivors to flee across the border into Kenya, where they surrendered.

Despite this setback, sources in Mogadishu confirm that President Hassan is preparing yet another campaign to attack Jubaland, further straining Somalia’s already fragile unity.

A President at Odds with His Nation

Beyond the battlefield, Hassan Sheikh’s administration has been marred by widespread allegations of corruption, including the illegal sale of public lands in Mogadishu — proceeds of which were never deposited into the National Treasury. This unprecedented act not only eroded public confidence but also displaced over 734,000 residents, creating one of the largest urban displacement crises in the capital’s history.

Meanwhile, three Federal Member States — Hirshabelle, Galmudug, and South West continue to operate under expired mandates, sustained only through the political protection of Villa Somalia. In contrast, Jubaland and Puntland remain the only two constitutionally legitimate administrations within the federation.

Donor Fatigue and the Death of Reform

For two decades, Western partners have financed Somalia’s budget, security sector, and reconstruction efforts. Today, however, donor fatigue is palpable. Billions have been poured into Somalia with little to show for it — a frustration compounded by the perception that Hassan Sheikh’s government has erased the institutional gains achieved before his return to power.

Diplomats privately describe Somalia as “a black hole of accountability,” while civil society organizations warn that international goodwill is evaporating as corruption, repression, and incompetence define the administration’s legacy.

A Nation Losing Faith

Perhaps most alarming is the shift in public mood. Across Somalia, many citizens have begun to voice sentiments once unthinkable — that it might be better to let Al-Shabaab rule than to endure the corruption and dysfunction of the current regime.

A Mogadishu residents stated: “If the state exists only to sell our land, steal our aid, and kill our sons, then it’s no longer a state. At least under Al-Shabaab, people know what to expect.”

Such despair reflects a profound loss of legitimacy — one that no military campaign or donor conference can repair.

A Presidency in Freefall

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s leadership has transformed Somalia’s fragile state into one of deepened division, squandered resources, and moral bankruptcy. From the ill-conceived war on Al-Shabaab to the failed assault on Jubaland and the sale of public land, his second term has left behind a trail of institutional wreckage and human suffering.

In the eyes of many Somalis, Hassan Sheikh has become the embodiment of the very failures the nation sought to overcome — a reminder that without vision, integrity, and planning, leadership becomes not a solution, but the problem itself.

Abdiqani Haji Abdi
Email: Hajiabdi0128@gmail.com