By Abdullahi Ahmed Nor

The newly formed North-East regional administration in Laascaanood, has taken a major step in institutionalizing its governance with the election of Dr. Aadan Cabdullaahi Aw-Xasan as Speaker of the Regional Assembly. The vote, widely viewed as orchestrated by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), is presented as part of efforts to solidify the region’s political framework within Somalia’s fragile federal system.

What should have been an organic, bottom-up state formation for Somalia’s newest state, the Northeast, has instead been overshadowed by the heavy hand of Villa Somalia, with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud playing a central role in shaping its outcome.

The new Speaker Dr. Aadan secured the speakership with 53 votes against his rival, Cabdiqafaar Dheeliye, who received 29. One ballot was declared invalid. In his acceptance speech, the new Speaker pledged to draft and pass laws for the fledgling administration. “I will dedicate my efforts to preparing and passing essential laws for the North-East State of Somalia,” Dr. Aadan declared.

Dr Aadan’s election has drawn attention from national stakeholders, with presidential candidate Dr. Khaliif among the first to congratulate him. Yet speculation is rife that the upcoming presidential and vice-presidential contests will be little more than symbolic exercises, with the results already predetermined in Mogadishu – Firdhiye as President and Abwaan as Vice President.

Background: Abrupt Formation Without Local Input

The North-East administration was abruptly declared in early 2025 by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud amid growing tensions between Jubaland and Puntland. The move was made without consultation with Sanaag elders or traditional leaders—an omission that many believe undermines its legitimacy from the outset.

Members of Parliament from the Sanaag region, appointed under this arrangement, are widely regarded as representing only themselves rather than their communities. With no real influence on the ground, their authority is questioned. Meanwhile, SSC, still reeling from years of political marginalization, land disputes, and neglect by both Mogadishu and Hargeisa and Puntland, has remained on the sidelines.

Risks of Destabilization

Opponents argue that the creation of the North-East State without broad consultation threatens to destabilize the wider region:

1) For SSC: The new administration could fracture fragile social cohesion, reigniting grievances instead of healing them.

2) For Puntland: The new state undermines Puntland’s historical claim over Sanaag and risks sparking political confrontation.

3) For Somaliland: By creating an alternative authority in the contested Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn (SSC) regions, the North-East administration could further erode Hargeisa’s territorial claims, potentially triggering clashes.

“The lack of engagement with Sanaag elders is a dangerous miscalculation,” said one Badhan-based political analyst. “Rather than stabilizing the north, this move could open a new front of instability between SSC, Puntland, and Somaliland.”

Broader Federal Implications

The FGS-managed election for Speaker is the first institutional milestone for the North-East administration. Yet with candidates effectively handpicked in Mogadishu, many see it as the opening act of a staged presidential contest and the gradual rollout of executive and judicial structures—institutions critics dismiss as artificial and imposed.

Political observers warn that the move risks adding another layer of complexity to Somalia’s federal system at a time when Puntland is asserting autonomy, Jubaland is at odds with Mogadishu, and Hirshabelle, Galmudug and South West face expired mandates.

“The North-East project is less about empowering local communities and more about power politics in Mogadishu,” noted a Somali constitutional expert. “If not corrected, it could destabilize the north and weaken the already fragile federal order.”

Expert Analysis: Shifting Balance of Power in Somalia

Political observers say the rise of the North-East administration is likely to alter Somalia’s already fragile federal dynamics in several ways.

Impact on Puntland:

According to political analyst Mohamed Hassan, based in Garowe, “The emergence of the North-East administration challenges Puntland’s historical claim to the SSC regions. While Puntland has long considered itself the guardian of these territories, a functioning parallel administration weakens that narrative.”

Challenge to Somaliland:

Somaliland, which has claimed sovereignty over the Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn regions for decades, is also directly affected. Analyst Amina Jama, a researcher on Horn of Africa politics, noted: “The formation of the North-East State, rooted in community rejection of Hargeisa’s authority, significantly undermines Somaliland’s territorial claims. It creates a political actor that will complicate Somaliland’s quest for international recognition.”

Pressure on Mogadishu:

For the Federal Government, the development presents both risks and opportunities. “Engaging with the North-East could strengthen the federal project by including historically marginalized communities,” explained Abdiqani Warsame, a constitutional expert in Mogadishu. “But if Mogadishu ignores or sidelines them, it risks further alienation, instability, and possibly renewed conflict in the north.”

Federal Balance:

The addition of a new state actor comes at a time when Somalia’s federal system is under strain, with Puntland asserting autonomy, Jubaland at odds with FGS and South West, Hirshabelle and Galmudug weakened by expired mandates.

Horn of Africa analyst Fadumo Isse observed: “The North-East administration, if consolidated, could emerge as a swing player in federal negotiations. Its alliances will matter, and its recognition—or lack thereof—could set a precedent for how Somalia manages regional self-determination.”

International Dimension: Regional and Global Stakes

The emergence of the North-East administration is also attracting attention beyond Somalia’s borders.

Ethiopia – Analysts suggest Addis Ababa may quietly welcome the new administration as it seeks to expand influence in Somalia through security and trade corridors. “Ethiopia views any fragmentation of Somali politics as an opportunity to secure leverage, especially in contested northern regions,” said regional security expert Abdullahi Osman.

Djibouti – Djibouti, which often positions itself as a mediator in Somali affairs, is watching developments carefully. Its leaders are wary of new fault lines that could destabilize trade routes linking the Horn.

Western Donors – International partners, including the U.S., EU, and UN, face a delicate balancing act. Recognition of the North-East administration could strengthen federalism by empowering local governance, but it risks antagonizing Somaliland and complicating Somalia’s unity agenda. A European diplomat in Nairobi, speaking on condition of anonymity, commented: “Donors will likely tread cautiously. The priority is stability and preventing escalation, but there is recognition that ignoring local voices in SSC regions contributed to the current crisis.”

Gulf States – With Gulf powers expanding investments in Somali ports and infrastructure, countries such as the UAE and Qatar will closely monitor whether the North-East administration offers new opportunities for partnership—or becomes another arena of rivalry.

Forward-Looking Scenarios (Next 6–12 Months)

Experts outline several possible trajectories for the North-East administration:

1. Recognition and Integration – If Mogadishu engages constructively, the administration could gain recognition as a federal member state. This path would bolster Somalia’s federal system and provide the Northeast regions with formal representation in national decision-making.

2. Rejection and Marginalization – If the Federal Government and donors withhold recognition, the North-East administration could remain isolated. These risks prolonging grievances, fueling instability, and opening space for spoilers to exploit divisions.

3. Escalation and Conflict – A worst-case scenario would involve clashes with Somaliland or tensions with Puntland, both of whom claim historic ties to parts of the SSC. Such a confrontation could destabilize the region and draw in external actors.

4. Quiet Consolidation – A middle path would see the North-East administration quietly building institutions and governance capacity, while avoiding outright confrontation with Mogadishu, Puntland, or Somaliland. Over time, its de facto authority could pave the way for eventual recognition.

The coming year will be decisive. If the North-East administration can avoid conflict, manages the external influence, particularly the heavy hand of Villa Somalia and focus on governance, it has a real chance of reshaping Somalia’s federal order. But if it becomes trapped in zero-sum rivalries, the region risks repeating the mistakes of the past.”

Outlook

The election of Dr. Aadan as Speaker is thus more than a symbolic development. It marks the opening chapter of a political experiment whose foundation—lacking the consent of traditional and community leaders—may be too fragile to endure. The direct involvement of Presdent Hsaan has raised concerns among political stakeholders, who argue that such interference risks undermining the credibility of the process and deepening tensions in an already fragile political landscape If not handled with caution, the North-East administration risks inflaming tensions across SSC, Puntland, and Somaliland, with consequences that could reverberate throughout Somalia’s delicate federal system.

Abdullahi Ahmed Nor
Email: abdulahinor231@gmail.com