By Mohamed A Yasin

Former Somali Intelligence Chief Fahad Yasin has delivered a scathing critique of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s leadership, warning of an imminent collapse due to what he described as reckless power consolidation, constitutional violations, and political coercion. The critique comes at a time when the National Consultative Council (NCC) began its session in Villa Somalia, a gathering clouded by allegations of illegitimacy and political manipulation.

Speaking in a widely circulated public statement, Fahad Yasin drew stark parallels between the current administration and previous regimes that fell under the weight of their own authoritarian impulses. “President Hassan has altered everything from how he received it. The federal constitution has been torn apart. Legal federal states have been sidelined. What we have now is a regime ruled by presidential decrees, propped up by regional leaders whose mandates expired long ago,” said Fahad.

According to him, the situation mirrors that of the previous administration led by Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, who was ultimately forced to accept a consensus-based election after prolonged political standoff.

“It will all come to an end the same way,” Fahad predicted. “One morning, he’ll wake up, realize the damage, and drop everything. I’ve never seen a man wrestle with a rock and win.”

The timing of Fahad’s remarks is significant. Today, President Hassan Sheikh convened the NCC meeting at Villa Somalia with the participation of leaders from South West, Galmudug, and Hirshabelle — all of whom are clinging to power despite their legal mandates having expired.

Rather than pressuring these leaders to hold overdue elections in their respective states, Hassan Sheikh is offering them continued tenure — under one condition: join his newly expanded political party.

“President Hassan is telling them: ‘You can remain in power if you join my party.’ And they accepted it,” said a political analyst based in Mogadishu, speaking on condition of anonymity. “They are blind to the fact that Puntland and Jubaland — two core federal member states — are not in the room. The conclusion of this NCC meeting is already on the wall before it even started.”

The newly rebranded party, formerly known as the Union for Peace and Development (UPD), will be officially launched tomorrow in a high-profile ceremony at Sahal Hall near KM4 in the capital. It has been renamed the Justice and Unity Party — a name many say is symbolic of neither justice nor unity.

Among those expected to attend the party’s unveiling are Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, Speaker of Parliament Sheikh Adan Madoobe, Senate Speaker Abdi Hashi, South West State President Abdiaziz Laftagareen, Hirshabelle’s Ali Gudlawe, Galmudug’s Ahmed Qoor-Qoor, and other senior government figures. The lineup illustrates the extent to which the ruling elite has coalesced around President Hassan, abandoning the facade of federalism and political plurality.

“What is happening in Mogadishu today is not party-building — it is state capture,” said a former constitutional advisor who worked on the 2012 Provisional Federal Constitution. “It is astonishing that the same leaders who rose to power on a platform of democratic reform have now hijacked the federal process for personal gain.”

Fahad Yasin’s commentary also included a scathing allegorical story to drive his point home. “A man once traveled to the city for shopping. Every product had risen in price beyond his expectations. After finishing his errands, he entered a mosque during Taraweeh prayers. By the eighth rak’ah, he walked out, baffled that even prayer had changed. When asked how the city was, he replied, ‘Everything has changed — even the prayer has more units now.’ That’s where we are today. Even the prayer has changed,” Fahad remarked sarcastically.

This biting metaphor served as an indictment of Hassan Sheikh’s tendency to overwrite longstanding political agreements, traditions, and legal frameworks.

“Soomaali heshiis ah, dunidana heshiis la ah — that was the mantra,” Fahad said, referencing Hassan’s once-hopeful slogan of internal harmony and international cooperation. “He has replaced it with ‘looma joojinayo’ (no one will be spared) and ‘yaa jeenan noo haya?’ (who will dare confront us?).”

Meanwhile, Puntland and Jubaland — Somalia’s two most autonomous and politically assertive regions — have continued to boycott both the NCC and the constitutional changes. Puntland severed ties with the federal government over what it called unconstitutional amendments and the centralization of donor funds. Jubaland, under President Ahmed Madobe, has also rebuffed pressure to join what he sees as a rigged federal arrangement.

“No credible political process can take place without Puntland and Jubaland at the table,” said political commentator Amina Moalim. “Any agreements made at this NCC meeting will lack not only legitimacy but also durability.”

Observers say the implications of Hassan Sheikh’s political maneuvers go far beyond party politics — they strike at the very heart of Somalia’s fragile federal arrangement. By legitimizing expired mandates in exchange for loyalty, the president is setting a precedent that undermines constitutionalism and incentivizes political opportunism.

“If this is allowed to stand,” said one diplomat based in Mogadishu, “you will have turned Somalia’s federal system into a pyramid of patronage — with Hassan Sheikh at the apex and everyone else clinging to power in exchange for allegiance.”

As the NCC continues behind closed doors, the writing, as many observers have noted, is already on the wall. There will likely be a declaration of unity. There will be applause. There will be calls for moving forward. But for many Somalis watching from afar, there will also be deepening disillusionment.

“You cannot manufacture legitimacy through coercion,” said constitutional expert Dr. Osman Barre. “The road Hassan Sheikh is on leads not to national unity but to national rupture.”

With mounting domestic opposition and international scrutiny growing, President Hassan may soon find himself exactly where his predecessor stood — isolated, cornered, and ultimately forced to concede. As Fahad Yasin forewarned:

“It will all end. And when it does, it will happen in one morning. Just like that.”

See the attached Communique from the NCC which is turned into President Hasan’s own party – The outcome of the NCC Precisely matched as Mr. Fahad Yasin has predicted – no plus and no minus.

Mohamed A Yasin
Email: moyasin680@gmail.com