BAIDAO (WDN) — In a dramatic shift in the struggle for control of Southwest State, forces aligned with the former Southwest President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed (Laftagareen) have reportedly taken control of four districts of the five Districts of Bay region, with local sources describing withdrawals and handovers that, in most locations, occurred without any fighting. The developments have intensified questions about the support enjoyed by the rival administrations of Abdiasis and the ability of the Mogadishu-backed leadership in Baidao to maintain control beyond the regional capital.

Residents and community sources who spoke to WardheerNews from Baidao, say many people are deeply reluctant to see their city become a battlefield. Elders and religious leaders are reportedly urging that Laftagareen’s forces be allowed to enter Baidao peacefully, arguing that civilians should not be forced to flee their homes or suffer the consequences of a battle between rival political factions.

Their concerns have grown as reports have emerged of rapid territorial changes across Bay region. Local reporting on October 16 indicated that Laftagareen-aligned forces had taken control of Diinsoor District, Qansax Dheere, Buurhakaba and Bardaale. Awdiinle, near Baidao, has also featured in reports of the advancing forces.  

The pace of these developments has transformed the political and security landscape around Baidao. Yet the circumstances differ from one location to another: reports indicate that most positions were abandoned without any resistance, while the takeover of Buurhakaba followed heavy fighting. The claim that 90% of the districts changed hands peacefully would therefore hold water.   

A changing picture on the ground

According to sources familiar with conditions inside Baidao, community elders and religious leaders are increasingly concerned that a military confrontation could cause civilian casualties, displacement and destruction of homes and businesses. They are said to favor a peaceful transfer of authority rather than a battle that could devastate the city.

The apparent ease with which most locations have changed hands has prompted speculation about whether local communities and security personnel are unwilling to fight for the administration led by Adan Mohamed Nur Madobe. Some residents reportedly believe Laftagareen’s forces are more acceptable to local communities, although the extent of popular support can be established from social-media footage and important individual accounts.

There are also reports that Laftagareen-aligned forces have distributed food to residents in some areas. Such assistance could help reinforce their local standing, particularly among communities facing economic hardship. It is not yet clear how extensive these distributions have been or how residents across the affected districts view the forces.

For supporters of Laftagareen, the reported withdrawals and peaceful entries represent evidence that the political contest is not being decided solely by military strength. They argue that local acceptance may be playing a role in the rapid changes in territorial control. That interpretation is marked on the ground as per broader independent reporting.

Federal troops reportedly face logistical pressure

Sources in Baidao have also expressed concern about the position of federal forces deployed to support Madobe’s administration, including Gorgor special forces and Southwest State security personnel.

According to these accounts, the forces face increasing isolation as routes supplying Baidao come under pressure. Fuel shipments reportedly destined for the city have been stopped around Buurhakaba, while restrictions on flights have already reduced the options for resupply or evacuation.

These claims could not be independently verified in full. If accurate, however, the reported restrictions would complicate the administration’s ability to maintain its security presence, move personnel and sustain operations outside the capital.

The reported territorial losses have also raised questions about whether Madobe’s administration retains sufficient local support and operational capacity to prevent further advances. The administration’s next steps remain unclear.

Bakool could become the next flashpoint

WardheerNews has also received reports that Laftagareen-aligned forces may be moving towards three districts in neighbouring Bakool region: Waajid, Rab Dhuure and Xudur.

Local sources suggest that some residents in these areas are anxious to avoid being caught between rival forces. They argue that communities should not be compelled to flee or endure fighting over a political dispute. However, the reported movements and the likelihood of peaceful handovers in these districts have not been independently confirmed.

Any expansion of the confrontation into Bakool would widen the geographical scope of the crisis and place additional pressure on already vulnerable communities. It would also test whether the pattern of withdrawals reported in parts of Bay region is likely to be repeated elsewhere.

Adan Madobe’s next move

Adan Madobe remains in Mogadishu, according to information provided to WardheerNews, while the administration faces mounting pressure in its principal area of control. He has not publicly addressed all the reported territorial changes in a way that resolves the questions surrounding his administration’s next steps.

Some residents and political observers believe he may struggle to return to Baidao without risking a confrontation. That remains speculation, however, and his intentions cannot be established without a direct statement from him or his administration.

For civilians, the immediate priority is preventing a battle for Baidao. Elders and religious leaders are reportedly advocating a peaceful arrangement to avoid bloodshed, mass displacement and damage to public and private property.

The central question is whether the rival sides will heed those calls before the struggle for Southwest State brings another major town into the conflict. The reported advances by Laftagareen-aligned forces have put the administration under growing pressure, the claims of popular backing, the extent of military isolation and the prospects for further peaceful handovers   can be seen all over the Baidhao District.

For the people of Baidao, the most important outcome is not which political faction claims victory, but whether the city can avoid becoming the next battlefield.

WardheerNews