Kismayo (WDN) — A major shift in the political and security balance of Somalia’s Gedo region is taking shape after former Federal Government security chief Abdirashid Janan in Gedo region, reportedly joined the Jubaland administration following days of talks with Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Ahmed Madobe).
Janan, who previously commanded Federal Government forces in Gedo, is reported to have aligned himself and his troops with Jubaland, potentially delivering a significant blow to Mogadishu’s efforts to consolidate federal control over the strategically important region.
According to reports, Janan assembled Federal Government forces under his command at the UK military camp outside Beledxaawo and informed them that his long-running dispute with Jubaland had now ended.
The reported realignment could fundamentally alter the balance of power in Gedo, where Mogadishu and Kismaayo have spent years competing over political authority, security forces and control of key border areas.
A New Blow to Mogadishu’s Strategy
Sources told WardheerNews that Jubaland has agreed to assume responsibility for the salaries of the troops, who have reportedly gone for an extended period without receiving regular pay from the Federal Government.
Janan is also reported to have told his forces that Mogadishu had failed to demonstrate genuine commitment to Jubaland’s interests, accusing some federal officials of approaching the country’s political disputes through narrow personal and clan-based calculations.
The allegations have not been independently verified, but they reflect the increasingly bitter political confrontation between the Federal Government and Jubaland.
The reported defection is particularly significant because it comes amid a broader struggle by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration to reshape the political landscape of Somalia’s Federal Member States.
Critics of the President accuse Villa Somalia of pursuing a strategy aimed at bringing regional administrations under tighter federal political control—an approach they argue has already produced severe instability in South West State, Galmudug and Hirshabelle.
From this perspective, the confrontation with Jubaland and Puntland is not simply a disagreement over administrative authority.
It is part of a much larger battle over whether Somalia’s federal system will remain genuinely decentralized or gradually become dominated by the political preferences of the Federal Government.
From Political Dispute to Security Confrontation
The danger is that political competition is increasingly being conducted through security forces. Rather than resolving disagreements through negotiated federal arrangements, rival administrations have repeatedly sought to build competing military and political structures.
Gedo is perhaps the clearest example. Beledxaawo occupies a strategically important position near the Somalia–Kenya border, making control of the area significant not only politically but also for trade, security and cross-border movement.
Janan’s reported decision to align with Jubaland could therefore give Kismaayo greater leverage in the region while complicating Mogadishu’s ability to deploy and maintain federal forces there.
It could also force the Federal Government to reconsider its wider security strategy in Gedo at a time when Somalia is already struggling with the threat posed by Al-Shabaab and the gradual transition from African Union forces to Somali national security institutions.
The episode raises a question that extends far beyond Janan or Gedo: What happens when political disagreements between Mogadishu and federal member states become disputes over armed forces?
Supporters of President Hassan Sheikh argue that the Federal Government has a constitutional responsibility to strengthen national institutions and prevent regional administrations from maintaining autonomous security structures outside a unified national framework. Opponents counter that Mogadishu’s approach risks destroying the very federal balance it claims to be protecting.
They point to the experiences of South West State, Galmudug and Hirshabelle, arguing that federal political intervention has increasingly produced regional administrations closely aligned with Villa Somalia. Their concern is that Puntland and Jubaland could eventually face similar pressure. Jubaland, however, has demonstrated that it is prepared to resist.
Puntland has likewise maintained a firm political distance from Mogadishu, creating an increasingly polarized federal landscape in which cooperation between the center and the regions is becoming more difficult. Janan’s reported realignment is therefore more than the movement of one commander and his troops.
It is a reminder that Somalia’s political struggle is increasingly being fought through the institutions and security forces that are supposed to protect the federal system. For now, the immediate consequences will be felt in Gedo.
But the political message is much broader: attempts to impose political uniformity on a federal system can produce resistance—and when that resistance acquires an armed dimension, the consequences can extend far beyond the original dispute.
WardheerNews