By Abukar Arman 

Ever since Israel illegally became the first UN member state to recognize the breakaway Somali region—Somaliland—as an “independent and sovereign state,” the security threat level in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East has shot to the danger zone.

Legally, Somaliland is still part and parcel of Somalia- a member state of the United Nations that is currently serving a two-year term as one of the rotational ten non-permanent members of the Security Council. Therefore, no other country or international institution has aligned with Israel in its latest breach of the international law.

The Unholy Alliance

The broad-based rejection attested to Israel’s rapidly diminishing influence, even among her traditional friends such as France and Spain. More importantly, it exposed Israel’s geopolitical “Trojan Horse” for chaos, destruction, and exploitation- UAE.

The magnitude of the destructive role that UAE plays across the Muslim world—Somalia, Yemen, Sudan, Libya—is often minimized by those analysts and narrative spinners who claim that UAE acquired all those strategic seaports in Africa and the Middle East for commerce or to simply protect its freezone ports.     

UAE is one of the wealthiest countries in the world. It is a country that could afford to commit $1.4 trillion to US investment to appease Trump and still maintain a Sovereign Wealth Funds that is more than $1 trillion. UAE’s 2025 Gross Domestic Product was over $560 billion. Keep in mind, UAE’s population is eleven million and a little over one million are considered the ‘true Emiratis.’

A Unique Danger

Geopolitical rivalries have been shaping and balancing power in the world since time immemorial. But, never in their current digital speed, nuclear scale, or the number of countries that have been positioning themselves for strategic dominance or defense. Against that background, Israel is establishing new realities on the ground that are far beyond the covert operations by MOSSAD to recruit and handle Somaliland’s political elite. Ironically, this very phrase that is commonly used in international relations and peace negotiations was an essential Israeli tactic that kept negotiations for the two-state solution that started in the 70s to continue as a never-ending political process.

The ‘Greater Israel’ Project

Shaikh Mustafa Xaji Ismail who is arguably one of Somalia’s most well-rounded and indeed most trusted Islamic scholars—a man who hails from the alpha clan that rules Somaliland but transcends all clan politics—has recently delivered his highly anticipated Friday sermon (khutbah) on partnering with Israel to kill and ethnically cleanse other Muslims.

The Shaikh has done what no other Somali religious scholar has done in recent history. He dedicated his entire heart-felt sermon to the censuring of his closest of kin who claimed for long that they had the right to secede from Somalia since the military government committed horrific massacres against them. He chastised them for lack of empathy, especially as people who themselves have tasted oppression. If you could not protect your oppressed Palestinian brethren, why would you want to help their oppressor- people whom throughout history never deliver promises that they make nor uphold agreements that they sign.  

The Future Is Here

The US National Security Strategy issued in December highlights two particular strategic priorities: ‘America First’ policies that would redirect a significant amount fundings on foreign relations and military expansion to the domestic needs. Keep America focused on her dominance on the Western Hemisphere. Unless a new situation that ‘directly threatens’ US’, national interests emerge.

Apparently, the Houthis of Yemen made US presence in the Red Sea a costly endeavor. This, together with the MAGA pressure, has compelled Trump to advance the Syria-model of partitioning the world into spheres of influence to four of his strategic partners and potentials: Israel, China, Russia, and Turkiye. That is why neither of these great and emerging military powers objected Trump’s illegal Venezuela adventure. The Syria-model is keeping together US, Turkiye, Israel, Russia, and a “transformed terrorist.”

US to keep her exclusive dominance in the Western Hemisphere, minus Africa and certain parts of the Middle East. Israel to continue its neighborhood bullying rampage to its demise. China to control the entire South China Sea and the part of the Pacific where Taiwan is located. Russia to control the Black Sea, Crimea and other gained Ukrainian strategic territories. Turkiye to control the Horn of Africa, parts of the Middle East, and to serve as NATO bulwark against Russia. This national security strategy has, or in due course will, abandoned two of US’ traditional allies: Europe and Israel. 

That said, Somaliland is set to become the stage where the Israel-First and America-First within the US government would have to settle their zero-sum competition. Somalia’s Berbera port is one of the most strategically vital seaports in Africa. And throughout history, every empire controlled the Red Sea. Berbera served as a naval base for the old Soviet Union and the United States at different periods during the Cold War. While the US may find Israel’s takeover of Berbera as a short-term tactical advantage, but, in the mid to long-term hat would likely be a strategic liability. Since independence till the civil war, the first page of the Somali passport used to list South Africa and Israel as no-go zones for their apartheid policies. 

Options That Could Be on the Table

Should Somaliland insist on joining the unholy alliance of Israel and the UAE, it would be risking serious economic, security, social and political ramifications. Somaliland’s economy is based on livestock exportation. And between 70-80% it ends up in the Saudi market.

With its multi-billion NEOM and Red Sea Global mega projects as well as the on-going deepwater oil and gas extraction in that strategic waterway, Saudi Arabia is considering Israeli control of the Red Sea southern corridor an existential direct threat. Israel is determined to expand to as part of its Greater Israel project.

Prime Minister Netanyahu made it clear that he will not accept anything less than greater Israel. He is demanding Israel to control, as he clearly stated, “from the river to the sea.” And this is the number one political objective of the ultra-right. They believe de facto ‘Jewish supremacy’ could never be achieved without ‘purification’ of the Hold Land from Islam and Christianity. “I believe we’re going to take Mecca, Medina and Mount Sinai, and purify those places,” says Avi Lipkin, former IDF spokesman, politician, and writer.

As the country that has the most to lose in an Israeli domination of the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia will do everything within its capacity to stop Netanyahu’s expansionist vision as it effectively done in Southern Yemen after bombing UAE out.

Currently, Saudi Arabia is driven by what I call the Bin-Faisal geopolitical strategic vison.  In his description of why his country would not sign any normalization agreement with Israel, Prince Turki Al-Faisal who comes with experiential depth in diplomacy and intelligence believes “all Israeli governments are the last of the Western colonizing powers of the Middle East.”  His clarity of geopolitical vision makes the tripartite military alliance of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan evermore credible, and aborting Israel’s settlement in Somaliland is their first test.

Saudi Arabia would likely boycott all imports—livestock and other goods—from Berbera. In the short-term, such step may reroute everything to Bossaso. However, Bossaso is another UAE controlled seaport, and, considering what has been happening in Southern Yemen, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and UAE is on a freefall.  

Test of Turkiye

Turkiye considers this as a direct threat to its strategic investment and military presence in Somalia. President Erdogan described it as an “illegitimate and destabilizing for the region.” Turkiye already deployed at least three F-16s to its military base in Somalia. 

Somalia is likely to delegate the legal control of her airspace and her right to the enforcement against violators to Turkiye. It won’t be long before      we find Turkish fighter jets rerouting, violating airlines, intercepting, escorting, or, when necessary, shooting down Israeli cargo and intelligence gathering planes. Israel has been unilaterally exercising such authority in Syria to undermine Turkiye’s allies and interests.     

Provocation of a Friendly Neighbor

And the Ansarullah of Yemen known as the Houthis make no secret that they would not be waiting idly until Israelis bombs and missiles to rain on them or until Israeli commandos carryout covert operations from Berbera. They are ready to preempt such attack. Their leader Abul-Malik Al-Houthi had this to say:

“We continue to monitor the situation and are serious about targeting any Israeli presence in Somaliland, a military base or any fixed position available to us, and we will not hesitate to target it militarily.” And if this were to materialize, Berbera military airport will lose one of the longest runways in Africa, and the commercial seaport will lose a significant amount of business to the Djibouti port. 

A Chance for Peace     

Since the North-East region of the political entity known as Somaliland officially became the sixth federal state, the 400 Somaliland soldiers imprisoned in Gojacade for the massacres they committed in Las Anood automatically become prisoners of the federal government. This affords the federal government an opportunity for a Somali-owned reconciliation, transitional justice, and amnesty.

But, if the Somaliland authority resorts to recapture the North-East and Awdal (North-West region) which is also in the process of seceding from Somaliland, the federal government will likely resort to the economic nuclear option. Periodical telephone and internet services interruption. 

Though the mega corporation Hormud serves as the guardian monopolist, the 252-access code belongs to Somalia. In that same spirit, the Somali government could legally reclaim its exclusive authority over internet service licensing and declare the Somaliland ISPs illegal.

Promptly or belatedly, Israel will have to leave Berbera. A long-term military presence in Somalia is simply unsustainable. In that context, Israel may resort to sowing what she notoriously does when she doesn’t get her (exceptional) way.  

Abukar Arman
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Arman is a Somali political analyst, writer and former Somalia Special Envoy to the United States. Arman writes extensively on Somalia and international political affairs.