By Abdullahi A. Nor
Somalia is once again standing at a dangerous political crossroads. What began as disagreements over elections and constitutional amendments has now evolved into a nationwide crisis touching nearly every pillar of the state — politics, security, federalism, the economy, and public trust. Across the country, the signs of fragmentation are becoming impossible to ignore.
In the north-east, Puntland has effectively severed ties with the Federal Government after accusing former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of dismantling the federal system, monopolizing power, and imposing constitutional changes without national consensus. Puntland leaders argue that Mogadishu has abandoned consultation and replaced partnership with coercion.
In the south, Jubaland has also distanced itself from the Federal Government, warning that Somalia risks sliding back into centralized authoritarian rule. The relationship between Mogadishu and Kismayo has deteriorated sharply amid disputes over security, elections, and control of federal institutions.
Meanwhile, South West State is engulfed in political turmoil. Opposition figures and sections of the local population accuse the Federal Government of using military pressure, intimidation, and externally backed security operations to impose political outcomes in the region. Tensions in Baydhabo and surrounding areas continue to fuel fears that South West could become the next major flashpoint in Somalia’s widening internal crisis.
The instability is not limited to one or two regions. Hirshabelle remains deeply fragile, plagued by political infighting, insecurity, and clan tensions, while Galmudug appears increasingly vulnerable to internal fractures as disputes intensify between regional leaders and Villa Somalia.
At the center of the storm is the controversial push for one-person, one-vote elections — a project former President Hassan presents as a historic democratic transition. But critics say the process lacks consensus, institutional readiness, and security guarantees. Opposition leaders argue that elections conducted without broad agreement could trigger conflict rather than democracy.
The dispute has exposed how deeply divided Somalia’s political class has become. Recent meetings inside the heavily fortified compound of Xalane in Mogadishu revealed the scale of the deadlock. Negotiations involving President Hassan Sheikh, former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, and Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni reportedly ended without agreement, despite pressure from Western diplomats urging compromise.
The atmosphere surrounding those talks reflected a country running out of time. Business confidence is collapsing. Bakara Market — Somalia’s largest commercial hub and economic lifeline — recently saw widespread closures after traders protested what they described as unbearable taxation measures imposed by the government. Merchants increasingly fear political instability, arbitrary taxation, and economic uncertainty. There are also growing reports that Somali business elites are quietly transferring their wealth abroad, fearing a broader state breakdown if the political crisis escalates further.
For ordinary Somalis, the psychological mood is changing rapidly. Conversations in Mogadishu, Baydhabo, Garowe, Kismayo, and other cities are increasingly dominated by one haunting comparison: 1991. That year marked the collapse of the Somali state and the beginning of one of the longest periods of conflict and state failure in modern African history. Today, many Somalis fear the country is drifting toward another moment of national rupture — not through sudden collapse alone, but through gradual institutional decay, political polarization, and loss of public legitimacy.
The Federal Government responds to dissent with intimidation rather than dialogue. Opposition demonstrations in Mogadishu have faced heavy security deployments, road closures, arrests, and accusations of excessive force. Opposition leaders say the use of state security institutions against political rivals is deepening mistrust and shrinking democratic space.
Supporters of the government, however, argue that Somalia cannot remain trapped forever in indirect clan-based politics and that reforms are necessary to move the country toward universal suffrage and stronger national institutions.
Yet even some neutral observers warn that reform without consensus in Somalia’s fragile political environment can quickly become destabilization. The international community appears increasingly cautious and fatigued. Western powers that once played a direct role in Somali political mediation now seem reluctant to become deeply involved again, despite mounting fears that the crisis could spiral beyond control.
This uncertainty has fueled broader public anxieties. Many Somalis believe foreign powers are watching Somalia drift deeper into fragmentation while offering only limited intervention. In political circles and on social media, there is growing discussion that Somalia risks becoming another example of a weakened state consumed by internal division, external rivalries, and institutional collapse.
Security concerns further complicate the situation. While political elites battle over elections and constitutional power, Al-Shabaab remains a potent force across large parts of the country. The militant group continues to exploit divisions among Somali leaders and weaknesses within federal and regional institutions.
The danger facing Somalia today is not merely political disagreement. It is the convergence of multiple crises at the same time:
- A constitutional crisis
- A federalism crisis
- A legitimacy crisis
- A security crisis
- An economic confidence crisis
- And a growing crisis of national cohesion
What makes the situation particularly dangerous is the absence of trust. Federal member states no longer trust Mogadishu. Opposition groups no longer trust federal institutions. Sections of the public no longer trust political leaders. And international partners increasingly appear uncertain about Somalia’s direction.
The fear now openly discussed in political circles is simple: if the current tensions continue unresolved, even a small spark could ignite a much wider national confrontation. Somalia’s history has repeatedly shown that political exclusion, concentration of power, and failure to compromise can rapidly push the country toward instability. The challenge facing Somali leaders today is whether they can step back from confrontation and rebuild consensus before the crisis becomes irreversible.
Because for many Somalis watching events unfold, the question is no longer whether the country is in crisis. The question is how far that crisis will go.
Abdullahi A. Nor
Email: abdulahinor231@gmail.com