By Mohamed A Yasin

Ethiopia has emerged as the clear winner in its latest dealings with Somalia, securing all its strategic objectives while making no concessions on its controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland.

Despite President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s earlier hardline stance against Ethiopia, his recent diplomatic pivot marks a stunning reversal—one that has left many Somalis disillusioned and questioning his leadership.

From Defiant Stance to Concession

Just months ago, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was rallying Somalis behind a nationalist cause, declaring Ethiopia a greater threat than Al-Shabaab. He vowed never to engage with Addis Ababa until it publicly annulled the MoU, which granted Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s Red Sea ports. His rhetoric was fiery, his stance seemingly resolute: Ethiopia, he insisted, must be excluded from the African Union’s new security mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).

Fast-forward to today, and that firm position has crumbled. In a dramatic about-face, Hassan Sheikh has conceded to Ethiopia’s demands, allowing it to remain a key player in Somalia’s security structure. Not only has Ethiopia retained its presence under AUSSOM, but it has also kept its strategic military positions from previous AMISOM and ATMIS missions. Crucially, Addis Ababa has refused to revoke its MoU with Somaliland, dismissing Mogadishu’s demands outright.

Ethiopia Secures Its Position in Somalia

The Ethiopian delegation’s visit to Mogadishu last week cemented this shift. Led by Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, Ethiopia’s Chief of General Staff, and Ambassador Redwan Hussein, Ethiopia’s National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) chief, the high-profile delegation met with Somali National Army (SNA) Commander General Odowaa Yusuf Rageh and National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) Director Abdullahi Mohamed Ali (Sanbalooshe). The meeting symbolized Ethiopia’s strengthened influence over Somalia’s security framework.

Observers say the outcome was clear: Ethiopia has secured its military foothold in Somalia while avoiding accountability for its actions in Somaliland. The agreement erodes the leverage of regional actors,” said Dr. Abdiweli Ali, a Horn of Africa analyst. “Ethiopia is prioritizing strategic interests in Somalia while ensuring it retains influence over key security zones.”

Hassan Sheikh’s Political Isolation Deepens

This diplomatic reversal comes as Hassan Sheikh faces mounting political challenges at home. His presidency, once defined by promises of reform and national unity, is now characterized by deepening isolation and a fractured nation. Opposition parties and two of the most powerful Federal Member States—Jubaland and Puntland—have outright rejected his administration’s policies. The reasons for this widespread discontent are numerous:

• Unilateral constitutional amendments that opposition leaders argue were designed to consolidate power in Mogadishu.

• The introduction of the I/P/1/V electoral system, which was imposed without consultation with Federal Member States.

 • Rampant corruption scandals, including the sale of public lands to private businesses outside the treasury’s oversight.

• Widespread nepotism, with government contracts and key positions allegedly awarded to allies and clan members.

The Federal Member States Revolt

Jubaland and Puntland have emerged as the strongest opponents to Hassan Sheikh’s rule. Both states have rejected his constitutional amendments and centralized election commission, viewing them as blatant power grabs.

Puntland, in particular, severed ties with Mogadishu over three years ago, citing concerns over the politicization of international aid, constitutional overreach, and Hassan Sheikh’s authoritarian tendencies. Jubaland, led by President Ahmed Madobe, has also stood firm, demanding the full participation of all Federal Member States in national consultations—a direct rebuke of Hassan Sheikh’s attempts to govern unilaterally.

Ethiopia’s Strategy: Strengthening Regional Alliances

While Hassan Sheikh’s domestic support crumbles, Ethiopia is strengthening its influence in Somalia by maintaining alliances with Federal Member States. Despite its nominal engagement with Mogadishu, Addis Ababa has longstanding ties with Jubaland and South West State, both of which are strategically crucial to its security interests. By fostering these relationships, Ethiopia can continue to exert pressure on the Somali federal government while avoiding direct confrontation over the Somaliland MoU.

This approach allows Ethiopia to shape events within Somalia while keeping Mogadishu weak and divided. “Ethiopia’s move is calculated,” says Dr. Abdiweli Ali. “It retains its military presence, consolidates its alliances with FMS actors, and ensures Mogadishu remains too distracted by internal turmoil to challenge its interests.”

Balcad and the Brazen Attack on Mogadishu’s Airport

While Hassan Sheikh was focused on diplomatic maneuvers, security in Somalia’s capital took a severe hit. A recent attack on Mogadishu’s airport underscored the growing instability under his leadership. The attack, claimed by Al-Shabaab, targeted a key government-controlled area, raising fears about the city’s vulnerability.

Simultaneously, tensions flared in Balcad, a strategic town northeast of Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab militants launched coordinated offensives, temporarily seizing control before Somali forces, with international support, managed to reclaim it. These incidents highlight the deteriorating security situation, raising serious concerns about Hassan Sheikh’s ability to maintain order while engaging in foreign policy concessions.

Abiy Ahmed’s Visit: A New Chapter in Somalia’s Decline?

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrived in Mogadishu on Feb 27, 2025, following two prior meetings with Hassan Sheikh in Addis Ababa on February 14-16. The visit is widely perceived as a diplomatic formality to further solidify Ethiopia’s strengthened position in Somalia.

For many Somalis, the visit raises alarming questions. Has Hassan Sheikh, in his desperation to cling to power, made backdoor concessions to Ethiopia? Will Somalia’s sovereignty be further compromised as he scrambles to salvage his presidency? These concerns come at a time when the Somali people are losing confidence in their leader’s ability to defend national interests.

A Presidency Running Out of Time

With his term approaching its end, Hassan Sheikh is running out of options. The nationalist rhetoric that once unified Somalis behind him has lost its potency. His failure to extract any meaningful concessions from Ethiopia has only fueled perceptions of weakness and capitulation.

At home, opposition parties are growing bolder. The Federal Member States are increasingly assertive. Corruption allegations continue to pile up. The very people who once stood behind Hassan Sheikh against Ethiopia now see a leader who has surrendered under pressure and secured nothing in return.

As Ethiopia consolidates its gains, Hassan Sheikh is left with few allies and an uncertain future. His presidency, once promising, now appears destined to be remembered as a period of missed opportunities, failed leadership, and a nation that continues to be vulnerable to external influence.

Abiy Ahmed is present and witnessed the attacks in the few hours he was in Mogadishu, Somalis are left to wonder: Is their president making last-minute deals to extend his political survival, or is this just another chapter in his legacy of failure?

Mohamed A Yasin
Email: moyasin680@gmail.com