Prime Minister Says Voting Will Take Place Wherever Possible — But the Federal Government Still Faces a Political and Territorial Deadlock With Puntland and Jubaland

Mogadishu (WDN)- Somalia’s federal government is pressing ahead with its election plans, but Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s latest comments have exposed a fundamental problem: Mogadishu is outlining how elections will be conducted in territories where it has yet to secure the political agreement or administrative access required to implement them.

Speaking on the Miizaan Podcast produced by Dawan Media, Hamza said elections would be held in areas of Jubaland where circumstances permit. Where direct voting is not possible, he said, electoral authorities would use alternative procedures designed for such circumstances. “The election will take place, wherever it can take place,” the prime minister said.

Hamza said the situation in Jubaland differs from that of other federal member states because the federal government does not recognize the current Jubaland administration. Nevertheless, he said Mogadishu wants Jubaland to participate in the national electoral process and that voting would take place wherever security and other conditions allow.

He specifically mentioned Jilib, Bu’aale, Hagar, Jamaame and Badhaadhe as areas where direct voting could prove impossible. In such locations, he said, the electoral authorities could apply the procedures established for constituencies where voting cannot physically take place.

He referred to the “one electoral district” system as providing election authorities with mechanisms for handling parliamentary seats or constituencies where polling cannot be conducted.

Hamza also cited Iraq and Afghanistan as examples of countries where elections have been held despite some areas being inaccessible for voting, with alternative arrangements used to manage those constituencies. But the problem confronting Somalia is not merely logistical. It is political.

The Missing Agreement

The latest political developments provide little evidence of an agreed national electoral settlement. On September 23, former Puntland presidency minister Mohamed Abdirahman Dhabancad, a member of the Somali Future Council’s technical committee, said that government and opposition representatives had held both leadership-level and technical discussions but had failed to reach agreement on key electoral issues.

Former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed similarly said on September 18 that the talks had failed to move forward, although he stopped short of formally declaring them collapsed. Puntland and Jubaland representatives have also previously withdrawn from or rejected rounds of talks when they believed the process was not producing an acceptable electoral framework.

In July, both states withdrew from talks in Mogadishu, with reports citing unresolved disagreements over the electoral system and the role of the federal government. That leaves a fundamental question hanging over the government’s election timetable: How can an election be nationally implemented when the principal political actors have not agreed on the rules?

Jubaland: A Government Mogadishu Does Not Recognize

The dispute is particularly acute in Jubaland. In November 2024, Jubaland suspended relations and cooperation with the Federal Government following a bitter dispute over the regional election process. Reuters reported at the time that the two sides had issued reciprocal arrest warrants and that both governments commanded substantial security forces. That rupture has never been fully resolved.

Mogadishu does not recognize the current Jubaland administration, while Kismayo has continued to operate its own political and security institutions. The consequence is straightforward: a federal election cannot simply be announced in Jubaland and assumed to be implementable.

Even if Mogadishu declares that voting will occur wherever possible, the practical question remains who will provide security, who will administer polling stations, who will register voters, which authorities will recognize the results and what political agreement will govern the distribution of parliamentary seats. Those are not technical questions alone. They go to the heart of Somalia’s federal political settlement.

Puntland: An Even Deeper Divide

Puntland presents another major obstacle. Puntland suspended cooperation with the federal government over constitutional, electoral and national-security issues and has maintained its own political and administrative processes outside the federal government’s preferred electoral framework. Its dispute with Mogadishu has since become one of the central fault lines in Somalia’s national political crisis.

The reality on the ground is therefore difficult to reconcile with the language of a single nationwide election administered from Mogadishu. The federal government does not exercise ordinary administrative authority across Puntland, and there is no current political agreement giving Mogadishu an accepted operational role in organizing elections there.

The same broader problem exists in Jubaland. This does not necessarily mean that elections in those territories are impossible. It means that they cannot realistically be implemented through federal declarations alone.

North Eastern State and the Other Regions

Hamza also distinguished the newly established Northeastern State from Puntland and Jubaland. He said voter registration and local elections would take place there, arguing that the administration’s leadership and parliament still have valid mandates and that its circumstances therefore differ from regions facing deeper political disputes.

The distinction illustrates the larger problem facing the federal electoral project: Somalia is no longer dealing with one uniform political environment. Different federal member states have different political arrangements, levels of cooperation with Mogadishu and relationships with the federal electoral institutions.

A national election therefore requires more than an electoral timetable. It requires political consent, security arrangements, administrative access and agreement over who has authority to conduct the vote.

The Election Question Is Now Bigger Than Voting

The federal government continues to present one-person, one-vote elections as the central objective. But the unresolved negotiations suggest that the dispute is no longer simply about whether Somalia should hold elections.

The deeper questions concern who controls the process, which electoral model will be used, how federal and state powers will interact, and what guarantees will protect the eventual political settlement. International partners have repeatedly pushed Somalia’s political actors toward dialogue, while the latest opposition statements indicate that the fundamental disagreements remain unresolved. That leaves Somalia facing a striking contradiction.

Mogadishu is preparing for an election that its political opponents have not agreed to, while two of the country’s most important federal member states remain outside a functioning political relationship with the federal government.

The question is therefore no longer simply when Somalia will vote. It is where the federal government can actually implement the vote, under whose authority, and on the basis of what political agreement. Until those questions are answered, an announcement from Mogadishu does not by itself create a nationwide election. The map of Somalia’s political reality remains ahead of the electoral timetable.

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