By Isha Qarsoon

Somalia is a land of paradoxes. It is rich but remains poor. It is blessed with vast resources—livestock, agriculture, fisheries, oil, gas, and renewable energy—yet it is a nation in economic paralysis. Its federalism was meant to unite, but instead, it divides. Its leaders were supposed to govern, but many rule only to enrich themselves. Beneath all of this lies a broken system, a warped version of power-sharing that fuels corruption and deepens mistrust.

At the heart of Somalia’s stagnation is a fractured federalism, one that exists more in name than in practice. The Federal Government and the Federal Member States engage in endless disputes over power, jurisdiction, and resources. Who controls the oil blocks offshore? Who has the authority over the vast fisheries along the coast? Who governs the fertile lands of the south? The answers are never clear. There are no legally binding agreements, no structured mechanisms to resolve disputes. Instead, power struggles take center stage, and resource management turns into a winner-takes-all contest. Negotiations—when they happen at all—are held in a vacuum, detached from the realities of federalism and without consideration of their long-term consequences. Federalism, instead of offering a framework for unity, has become a battleground where competing interests fight for dominance.

And then, there is the 4.5 power-sharing system, a temporary fix that has become a permanent disease. It was designed as an inclusive mechanism to prevent any one clan from monopolizing power. But in practice, it has devolved into an entrenched system of corruption, where political seats are no longer earned but distributed like commodities. Competency is irrelevant. The only qualification is loyalty to a faction, a clan, or a benefactor. Political leaders rise, not because they have vision or ability, but because they are masters of manipulation. Governance is reduced to a numbers game; securing the right alliances, brokering the right deals, and ensuring that power remains within a tight circle of elites. The result is a government that cannot govern. Laws exist, but they are ignored. Institutions are built, but they are hollow. Decisions that should be made through structured negotiations are instead settled through backroom deals.

Somalia is poor not because it is suffering from a lack of resources but because of a lack of good governance. The oil beneath its waters, the minerals buried deep in its soil, the abundant sun and winds that could power its cities, none of these riches benefit the people. Because before development can happen, there must be governance. And before governance, there must be the rule of law.

But rule of law does not emerge from speeches or political promises. It does not take root in a system built on corruption. It needs institutions. It needs independent courts, functioning parliaments, and accountable executives. It needs leaders who understand that governing is not about personal survival but about serving a nation. And yet, Somalia’s national and regional leaders are unwilling to negotiate in good faith. When they do sit down at the table, they do so not to build a system that works for Somalis but a system that ensures their personal interests remain protected. Their failure is not just an inability to lead but an outright refusal to govern for the people. They show no real commitment to addressing pressing national concerns such as economic growth and public services. Instead, their focus remains on consolidating power and amassing wealth. The needs of the people—basic necessities like healthcare, education, and job creation—are neglected, sacrificed at the altar of personal enrichment. This raises an unsettling question: Whose country is this, anyway? If the leaders do not care about the people’s well-being, if they refuse to act in the national interest, then whom do they truly serve?

The Cost of a Broken System

The consequences of this failure are everywhere. Investors hesitate. Why commit capital to a country where contracts hold no weight, where property rights exist only in theory, and where a single political crisis can erase years of progress? Entrepreneurs struggle. How can businesses grow when disputes are not settled by law, but by influence, coercion, or force? Public resources vanish into private hands with no accountability. Who will enforce transparency when the very institutions meant to check corruption are themselves corrupted?

And then, there is the human cost. The fisherman in Kismayo watches as foreign trawlers plunder his waters, while politicians in Mogadishu squabble over who holds the right to sell fishing licenses. The farmer in Baidoa or Jannaale stands on fertile land that could feed thousands, yet it remains barren, not because of drought, but because policies meant to support agriculture are paralyzed by political self-interest. The young Somali in Mogadishu, driven by ambition and potential, finds himself trapped—not by a lack of skill or determination, but by a system where opportunity is monopolized by the few, while the many are left to struggle.

This is the true tragedy of Somalia—not just the loss of wealth, but the erosion of dignity. The breakdown of trust. The slow decay of hope in a system that, instead of serving its people, has been weaponized against them. Without the rule of law, there can be no investment, no development, no opportunity. Without institutions that uphold justice and protect the rights of citizens, Somalia will remain a country where survival is mistaken for progress, and where those in power continue to thrive at the expense of the nation.

Security without Justice: an illusion

At the core of this stagnation is a political discourse that fixates on security—not as a means to solve Somalia’s problems, but as a shield against accountability. Leaders justify their failures by insisting that security must come first, but what they truly mean is maintaining control, guarding checkpoints, and preserving their own power. Ask any leader why Mogadishu’s residents must endure crumbling roads and failing drainage systems, and the answer is predictable: “Do you know what this city was like 10 or 15 years ago? It was unlivable!” As if mere contrast with past chaos absolves them of responsibility, as if survival alone should be mistaken for progress.

But the government’s security narrative finds an unlikely ally—the private elite. Many business owners, rather than pushing for stability through the rule of law, seem content with the status quo. Perhaps they do not know better, or perhaps they have learned how to profit in a war economy and fear testing the waters of a regulated system. The absence of legal oversight allows for unchecked monopolies, tax evasion, and lucrative informal networks that thrive in instability. Why demand reforms when disorder keeps competition at bay?

At the same time, the public remains largely silent—not because they do not suffer, but because they have been conditioned to accept their fate. The ruler-ruled dynamic defines governance in Somalia, where citizens do not see the government as an entity that serves them but as an untouchable force that rules over them. Without a tradition of civic engagement or legal recourse, there is no widespread demand for accountability, no expectation of public service. People are hurting, but they do not know where to go. They have grievances, but no belief that their voices will be heard.

This is the ultimate illusion—security without justice, governance without accountability, a nation without a state. As long as the private sector benefits from disorder and the people remain unaware of their rights, the cycle of stagnation will continue. True security is not achieved through barricades and checkpoints. It is built through laws that are applied fairly, institutions that function transparently, and a people who demand nothing less.

The Benefits of the Rule of Law

For businesses, the benefits of a functioning rule of law cannot be overstated. Investors, both local and foreign, need legal protections. Contracts must be enforceable, and property rights must be guaranteed. With these protections in place, businesses can expand without fear that their assets will be seized or their investments wiped away by sudden political instability. Small businesses, the backbone of any economy, will thrive when taxation is clear, fair, and for the benefit of the society, when bureaucracy is transparent, and when regulatory agencies exist to facilitate commerce rather than to extort bribes. When rule of law governs the market, Somalia’s entrepreneurs will finally have the space to build, to innovate, and to compete on a regional and global scale.

And when businesses grow, jobs follow. Somalia has a large, unemployed youth population—a ticking time bomb if left unaddressed. Without economic opportunities, many turn to illicit activities or extremist groups that promise income and purpose. A legal system that enables businesses to flourish will create jobs at every level, from the fisherman on the coast to the engineer working in renewable energy to other knowledge-based workers. As employment increases, crime, chaos, and social unrest decreases. A country at work is a country at peace.

Education, too, will transform under the rule of law. Schools and universities can only thrive when governance is stable and resources are allocated properly. With functioning institutions, education will be prioritized, and Somali students will no longer have to look abroad for quality learning. A well-educated population is Somalia’s greatest untapped resource. Skilled graduates will enter the workforce, not just as job seekers, but as job creators. With investment in education, Somalia will no longer just compete with its neighbors; it will surpass them.

And then, there is Somalia’s hidden treasure: its landscape. The country’s pristine beaches and breathtaking scenery are a tourism goldmine waiting to be unlocked. For decades, instability has kept the world from discovering what could be one of Africa’s most sought-after destinations. Under the rule of law, tourism can flourish. Investors will build resorts, airlines will establish direct routes, and the world will come to see what Somalia has to offer. Tourism will bring in billions in revenue, creating even more jobs, expanding infrastructure, and showcasing Somalia’s true beauty.

A stable, law-abiding Somalia will not just be the envy of the region. It can even be the envy of the continent and even the world. It will be a country where businesses thrive, where young people find opportunities, where education fuels a knowledge-based economy, and where natural beauty is protected and celebrated.

The Road to Stability is the Road to Institutions

Somalia’s problem is not a lack of resources. It is a lack of rules, institutions, and accountability. It is a country where power is hoarded, not shared. Where negotiations are held in bad faith. Where governance is an afterthought to political survival. But this can change.

A system built on corruption can be dismantled. A country divided by federalism disputes can be united by competent leadership who can help create structured governance that balances regional autonomy with united Somalia. A people disillusioned by lack of leadership can find hope in institutions that serve them, not exploit them.

Somalia stands at a crossroads. One path leads to ongoing stagnation or even fragmentation, where federalism becomes a source of conflict, deepening national divisions rather than resolving distrust exposed by the prolonged civil war. The other leads to a future where rule of institutions, not rule of men, dictates the fate of the nation.

The choice is clear. The work is difficult. But the time is now.

Isha Qarsoon
Email:  ishaqarsoon1@gmail.com
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Isha Qarsoon- is a platform dedicated to addressing critical issues pertaining to good governance, corruption, and social challenges. It emphasizes investigative journalism as a means to uncover and disseminate information, enabling the public to engage with and understand the realities of the country. Through its focus on transparency and accountability, the forum aims to foster informed public discourse and contribute to societal awareness and reform.

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