Mogadishu, Somalia (WDN)— President Hassan Sheikh in his final year of the presidency, is facing mounting opposition and with no concrete or agreed-upon plan in place for a peaceful transition of power or the holding of elections. Meanwhile, there is growing momentum among the leaders of Puntland, Jubaland, and the political opposition as they prepare to form a united front to confront the president.
Reliable sources reveal that President Hassan is discreetly preparing a parallel national conference aimed at undermining an upcoming opposition-led forum scheduled to take place in Kismayo, the seat of Jubaland State.
Both events, curiously branded under the same title — “Somali National Dialogue Conference” — are expected to unfold within weeks of each other, setting the stage for a major political confrontation as Somalia heads into a delicate pre-election transition.
According to insiders close to Villa Somalia, President Hassan’s team plans to host the government-backed gathering in one of the pro-federal states — either Galmudug, Hirshabelle, or South West State — whose leaders are seen as loyal allies of the presidency but whose mandates have expired. “The President wants to control the narrative,” said one senior political source in Mogadishu. “He doesn’t want Kismayo to become the symbol of national dialogue.”
Potential host cities being considered include Dhuusamareeb, Jowhar, and Baidoa, though no final decision has been announced.
The opposition, led by leaders and influential figures from Jubaland, Puntland, political oppositions and segments of civil society, is pressing ahead with its own conference in Kismayo, which it says will focus on federalism,constitutional reform, and equitable power sharing.
“People are tired of top-down politics,” said an opposition adviser based in Nairobi. “The Kismayo conference is about restoring the federal spirit that the current administration has eroded.”
Meanwhile, Villa Somalia is mobilizing a number of former senior government figures to lend legitimacy to its own event, including Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, Mohamed Mursal Sheikh Abdirahman, and Ali Mohamed Gedi — all of whom have previously held top offices in Somalia.
Concerned citizens and observers warn that holding two rival reconciliation conferences could exacerbate Somalia’s widening political polarization. “This is not dialogue — it’s competition for legitimacy,” noted a political analyst based in Nairobi. “Instead of bridging divides, it risks cementing them.”
The standoff underscores a growing power struggle between the federal center and regional states, a tension that deepened after the 2024 Electoral Law transferred electoral authority from state-level bodies to the federal government — a move critics say violated the Provisional Constitution.
As both camps prepare to showcase their version of “national dialogue,” Somalia faces yet another test of its fragile federation. Whether these conferences produce genuine reconciliation or deepen the divide remains to be seen.
WardheerNews