By Mohamed A Yasin
Intense political negotiations are underway in Dhusamareb as the Federal Government of Somalia and the leadership of Galmudug edge closer to an agreement that could determine the future political direction of one of Somalia’s most strategically important federal member states.
Sources familiar with the discussions say several rounds of talks between Villa Somalia and Galmudug President Ahmed Abdi Kariye “Qoor Qoor” have produced what officials describe as a preliminary understanding on the controversial issue of one-person, one-vote elections and the broader political transition expected in the state.
The negotiations have reportedly been spearheaded by National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) Director Mahad Salad, who has led federal delegations to Dhusamareb in recent weeks. According to informed sources, the discussions have focused not only on electoral arrangements but also on the future leadership of Galmudug and the political alignment of the state ahead of upcoming elections.
Prime Minister Arrives to Seal Agreement
Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre has arrived in Dhusamareb to finalize the agreement and formally bring an end to the political uncertainty that has gripped Galmudug in recent months. His arrival has transformed the city into a heavily secured zone. Additional security forces have been deployed throughout key locations, while checkpoints and protective measures have been strengthened to ensure the safety of the visiting delegation and government officials.
Behind the public display of stability, however, political observers say a fierce struggle is unfolding over who will control Galmudug after the current administration’s tenure comes to an end. Villa Somalia is actively pursuing a political realignment in Galmudug, with the aim of ensuring that the next administration remains closely aligned with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s political camp.
Political insiders say the federal leadership hopes that the presidential election expected in July will produce a candidate affiliated with the Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP), the political organization associated with President Hassan Sheikh. Among the names being discussed is businessman Libaan Ahmed Hassan, who is widely rumored to be emerging as the preferred candidate of Villa Somalia.
The growing perception that the outcome is being shaped in advance has fueled concern among sections of the Galmudug public and opposition figures, who fear that local democratic processes could be overshadowed by federal political interests.
Lessons from South West State
The developments in Galmudug come against the backdrop of the recent political transition in South West State, a process that remains highly controversial. The election in Baidoa was less a competitive democratic exercise and more a carefully managed political operation designed to deliver victory to a candidate backed by Villa Somalia.
That election resulted in the victory of former Speaker of Parliament Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nur (Madobe), who was supported by the JSP political movement. Critics maintain that the process reflected the growing influence of the federal government in the internal affairs of federal member states and raised questions about the independence of regional institutions.
Residents across Galmudug are closely monitoring the situation, worried that political disagreements could deepen divisions within the state and undermine its fragile stability. Community leaders and civil society actors have expressed concern that any perception of external interference in the electoral process could trigger new political disputes at a time when unity is needed to address security, development, and governance challenges.
The stakes are particularly high because Galmudug occupies a critical position in central Somalia and serves as a key battleground in the country’s ongoing efforts to combat insecurity and strengthen state institutions. The negotiations unfolding in Dhusamareb are increasingly being viewed as a broader test of Somalia’s federal system itself. At the center of the debate is a question that has become increasingly common across Somalia’s federal member states: will regional administrations retain the autonomy envisioned under the federal framework, or will political decisions increasingly be shaped from Mogadishu?
As federal officials, security chiefs, and regional leaders continue their closed-door meetings, many in Galmudug believe the coming weeks will reveal whether the state’s next election becomes a genuine expression of local political choice or another chapter in Somalia’s growing struggle over power, influence, and the future of federal governance.
For now, Dhusamareb remains calm on the surface. But beneath that calm, a high-stakes political contest is unfolding—one that could reshape not only Galmudug’s leadership but also the balance of power between Somalia’s federal government and its member states.
Mohamed A Yasin
Email: moyasin680@gmail.com