By Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh
The election held in Ethiopia on June 2, 2026, produced what may be the least surprising political result in the Horn of Africa this year. Long before the first ballot was cast, before polling stations opened, and before election officials began counting votes, most Ethiopians already knew who would emerge victorious: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his ruling Prosperity Party.
That certainty says less about the popularity of the government than it does about the nature of Ethiopian politics itself.For decades, Ethiopia has held elections. What it has struggled to hold is an election in which power genuinely appeared at risk of changing hands.
The latest vote unfolded against the backdrop of armed conflict, political unrest, economic hardship, and deep national divisions. Large portions of the country were either partially excluded from the process or affected by security conditions that made meaningful participation difficult. Yet despite these extraordinary circumstances, the outcome remained almost universally predictable.
To understand why, one must look beyond the current government and examine the political traditions inherited from Ethiopia’s modern ruling elite.
A Long Tradition of Predetermined Outcomes
Ethiopia’s history of elections has often been characterized less by competition than by confirmation. During the era of the military Derg regime under Mengistu Haile Mariam, elections existed primarily as instruments of state authority. The ruling communist establishment viewed political pluralism not as a strength but as a threat. Opposition was suppressed, dissent was criminalized, and the state monopolized political life.
When the Derg collapsed in 1991, many Ethiopians hoped the arrival of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) would usher in a new democratic era. Initially, the EPRDF presented itself as a coalition committed to federalism, political participation, and national reconstruction. Under the leadership of Meles Zenawi, the government introduced economic reforms that transformed parts of the country and delivered years of impressive economic growth.
Yet while the economy modernized, political competition remained tightly controlled.The EPRDF perfected a system that combined elections with overwhelming dominance. Opposition parties were permitted to exist, but rarely on equal terms. State institutions, security structures, and political networks remained firmly under the control of the ruling establishment.
The most striking example came during the 2015 elections when the EPRDF and its allies claimed 100 percent of parliamentary seats. While such a result might be impressive in a one-party state, it raised obvious questions in a country officially described as a multiparty democracy.
The Prosperity Party Inherits the System
When Abiy Ahmed rose to power in 2018, he was initially celebrated as a reformer. Political prisoners were released. Exiled opposition figures returned home. Media restrictions were eased. The Prime Minister received international acclaim and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in ending the long-standing conflict with Eritrea.
Many believed Ethiopia was finally moving toward genuine democratic competition. But optimism gradually gave way to reality. The EPRDF was dissolved and replaced by the Prosperity Party. Officially, the new party was presented as a vehicle for national unity. Critics, however, argued that the change amounted to a rebranding exercise rather than a fundamental transformation of Ethiopia’s political culture.
The structures changed. The concentration of power did not. Today, many opposition figures argue that the Prosperity Party inherited the habits of its predecessors while adopting the language of reform.
An Election Missing Large Parts of the Country
The latest election illustrates that contradiction. All of Tigray remain politically and socially scarred by one of Africa’s deadliest wars in recent decades. The conflict displaced millions, devastated infrastructure, and left deep wounds that remain far from healed. Despite repeated calls from international actors for dialogue, the war continued for years before a fragile settlement emerged.
Meanwhile, violence continues to affect significant areas of Amhara and Oromia. In Amhara, clashes involving armed groups and federal forces have destabilized large portions of the region. In Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest region, security operations and insurgent activity continue to disrupt normal life in many districts.
As a result, election authorities themselves acknowledged that numerous polling stations could not operate because of security concerns. Yet somehow, despite these extraordinary obstacles, confidence in the final result remained absolute. Not confidence in the process. Confidence in the winner.
Opposition Without Threat
Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of Ethiopian politics is the relationship between the ruling party and its opposition. Officially, Ethiopia remains a multiparty democracy. In practice, critics argue that many opposition groups lack the resources, access, organizational capacity, or political space necessary to challenge the ruling establishment effectively.
Some opposition parties are fragmented. Others face internal divisions. Some operate under severe political constraints. The result is an electoral landscape in which competition often appears symbolic rather than transformative. Skeptics frequently joke that Ethiopia’s opposition exists primarily to demonstrate that opposition exists. The Prosperity Party, meanwhile, enjoys the advantages of incumbency, state infrastructure, administrative reach, and nationwide organizational networks. That does not guarantee victory. But it certainly improves the odds.
The Curious Mechanics of Election Day
Election day itself provided several moments of unintended comedy.Officials announced that approximately 40 million of Ethiopia’s 54 million registered voters were expected to participate. Later, turnout estimates were compiled using information collected through telephone calls from local officials. Communication failures delayed reporting from numerous areas. Some polling stations closed at the scheduled time. Others remained open hours later. In certain locations, voting reportedly continued until midnight—six hours after the official closing time.
Election officials also acknowledged irregularities. In one location, polling was suspended after authorities discovered election workers allegedly marking ballots themselves. The revelation raised uncomfortable questions. If election workers were caught filling out ballots in one polling station, what guarantees exist regarding polling stations where no one was caught? Authorities promised investigations. Observers have heard similar promises before.
Democracy as Performance
The broader issue extends beyond one election. The problem is not whether the Prosperity Party enjoys genuine support among segments of the population. It undoubtedly does. The question is whether Ethiopian elections are structured in a manner capable of producing an outcome the ruling party does not want.
Many citizens increasingly believe the answer is no. This perception is damaging because legitimacy ultimately depends not only on victory but also on public confidence that defeat was possible. When elections become exercises in confirming expectations rather than testing them, democracy risks becoming political theater.
The Predictable Ending
By the time the final votes are counted, Ethiopia will almost certainly have a winner. What remains uncertain is whether the election will strengthen confidence in the country’s democratic institutions or deepen existing skepticism.
For now, the verdict of many Ethiopians appears straightforward. The names of the candidates may change. The slogans may change. The parties may change—from the communist era, to the EPRDF, to the Prosperity Party.
But the outcome, they say, remains remarkably consistent. In Ethiopia, elections often feel less like contests for power and more like ceremonies confirming decisions that were already made long before the first voter arrived at the ballot box.
Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh
Email: abdikarimshak@gmail.com