Addis Ababa (WDN) — Ethiopia is facing growing security concerns, particularly along its eastern border, following plans to end U.S. logistical funding for the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) on December 31, 2026, according to a Somali lawmaker and regional security experts.

The implications of the planned funding cutoff were discussed on September 3 during a security forum hosted in Addis Ababa by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), where experts examined emerging threats across the Horn of Africa and their potential impact on regional stability.

Experts warned that the loss of U.N.-backed transportation, aviation and logistical support could create a significant operational gap for the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), particularly in areas near the Somalia-Ethiopia-Kenya border region.

The logistical system supporting international and Somali forces is critical to troop movements, the delivery of supplies and the ability to conduct sustained security operations in remote and contested areas. Without an effective replacement mechanism, experts cautioned, forces deployed far from major population centers could face serious constraints on mobility and resupply.

During the discussion, Somali MP Ahmed Abdi, secretary of the Federal Parliament’s Defence Committee, highlighted the role of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) in Somalia’s security architecture.

Ahmed said Ethiopian forces play an important role in stabilizing nine strategically important districts in South West State, where Ethiopian and Somali forces operate jointly against security threats.

He argued that Ethiopia’s military presence in Somalia extends beyond the fight against Al-Shabaab. It is also closely linked to Ethiopia’s own border security, preventing armed groups from moving across the frontier and containing threats that could potentially spread from Somalia into Ethiopian territory. That makes any deterioration in Somalia’s security environment a direct concern for Addis Ababa.

AUSSOM’s Logistics Problem

Security experts therefore warn that any reduction in AUSSOM’s operational capacity could have consequences well beyond Somalia.

The planned end of U.S. funding for UNSOS raises a critical question: who will replace the logistical support that currently enables international forces to move personnel, deliver supplies and sustain operations across difficult terrain?

If adequate alternative financing and logistical arrangements are not secured, AUSSOM could face reduced capacity in transportation, aviation and supply operations.

That, in turn, could create opportunities for Al-Shabaab to exploit gaps in areas where Somali government and international forces are attempting to maintain pressure on the militant group.

The concern is particularly significant because logistics are often the unseen foundation of military operations. A force may have troops, weapons and political authority, but without reliable transportation, fuel, aviation and resupply, its ability to sustain operations in remote areas can deteriorate rapidly.

The Ethiopia-Kenya Dimension

The consequences could also extend to Kenya, which, like Ethiopia, shares a long and strategically sensitive border with Somalia. A weakening of Somalia’s security capacity could increase the security burden on both neighboring countries, potentially requiring them to devote additional resources to border surveillance, counterterrorism operations and the prevention of cross-border militant activity.

For Ethiopia, the concern is especially acute because instability in Somalia can have direct implications for its eastern border.Regional security experts argue that changes to AUSSOM’s financing and logistical capabilities should therefore be viewed as a Horn of Africa security issue rather than simply an administrative or budgetary matter concerning an international mission.

The Addis Ababa discussion highlighted a broader reality: the future of AUSSOM will depend not only on the number of troops deployed but also on whether those troops can be effectively supplied, transported and supported. The end of U.S. funding for UNSOS could therefore become a critical test of the international community’s commitment to sustaining Somalia’s security architecture.

If replacement funding is delayed or inadequate, the consequences could extend from the battlefield in Somalia to the borders of Ethiopia and Kenya.The debate in Addis Ababa suggests that the logistics question surrounding AUSSOM may ultimately become a question of regional security. Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya share interconnected security interests, and a significant decline in Somalia’s operational capacity could create new vulnerabilities across the wider Horn of Africa.

For Ethiopia in particular, the issue is difficult to separate from its own national security calculations. As long as armed groups remain active in Somalia and capable of exploiting weakly governed or poorly secured areas, instability south of Ethiopia’s border remains a potential threat to Ethiopian territory.

The December 31 deadline is therefore more than a funding date. It could mark a turning point for Somalia’s security operations—and potentially for the security balance of the wider Horn of Africa.

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