By Ahmed A. Yusuf

The latest episode of Somali Politics: The Never-Ending Soap Opera! featuring President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, a cast of exhausted soldiers, disappearing weapons, and Al-Shabaab—the only side that seems to be winning this so-called war.

Former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed has emerged once again to deliver his signature blend of disappointment and sarcasm, tearing into the government’s handling of the Al-Shabaab conflict. With the weariness of a man who’s seen this movie before (and probably wished for a different ending), Sharif laid out the absurdity of the war effort, which, after nearly two years, has turned into a tragic merry-go-round.

The Great Somali Tug-of-War

Back in 2022, when President Hassan relaunched the “final” war against Al-Shabaab (a phrase that has lost all meaning in Somalia), we were all told that this time, it would be different. The plan? To “liberate” areas held by Al-Shabaab and hand them over to the government. The reality? A never-ending game of musical chairs, where districts and villages have changed hands more times than a used car in Mogadishu’s black market.

Since the war began, places like Aadan Yabaal, Galcad, and Masagaway have been “captured” and “recaptured” so frequently that even Google Maps is struggling to keep up. The Somali National Army (SNA) will enter a town with grand victory speeches, only for Al-Shabaab to slip back in a week later and reclaim it—sometimes without firing a shot, because, well, SNA troops have already fled, leaving behind stockpiles of weapons as parting gifts.

And speaking of lost territories, let’s take a closer look at the growing list of places that have fallen back into Al-Shabaab’s hands despite all the victory proclamations from Villa Somalia’s Friday sermons:

Hirshabelle FMS – Middle Shabeele Region
Districts:

1) Ruun Nirgood and 2) Ceel Baraf

Villages:

Ceel Ali Ahmed, Hilowle Gaab, Cadaan Laxeey, Al Kowthar, Warciise, Boos Hareeri, Biyo Cadde, Miirtawqa, Lama Garas.

Hiiraan Region – Villages:

Booco, Jiciboow, Beero Yabaal, Garasyaani, Nuur Fanax, Tarajento, Baardheere, Camaloow, Xujuub, Hilo Bacaad, Hilo Buulo.

Galmudug FMS
Districts:

1) Galcad, 2) Budbud and 3) Cowsweyne

Villages:

1) Maraay, 2)Suuleey, 3) Caad, 4)Camaara, 5) Shabbelow, and 6) Jeex Jeexaa

Total of 5 Districts and 26 villages have been recaptured by Al-Shabaab since President Hassan’s campaign began. This inconvenient truth completely dismantles the fantasy that the president happily sells from the pulpit of the presidential mosque after Friday prayers.

Ethiopia Enters the Bout

Ethiopia’s air force—the once-sworn enemy of Somalia, even worse than Al-Shabaab according to President Hassan—has now entered the battle against Al-Shabaab in the Middle Shabelle region. In a dramatic turn of events, Ethiopian warplanes have been conducting air strikes as the militant group tightens its grip on towns recently recaptured from the Somali army.

This intervention comes as the war effort continues to falter, with Al-Shabaab steadily reclaiming territory. According to Somali Guardian, dozens of air strikes have targeted the Middle Shabelle region this week, with the majority conducted by U.S. and Turkish drones. Key towns recently seized by militants, including El Baraf, Biyo Adde, and El Ali Ahmed, have been focal points of the aerial campaign.

However, despite the intensity of these strikes, which have reportedly caused significant damage to civilian properties, Al-Shabaab remains entrenched in its newly captured territories. Ground offensives by Somali forces and allied militias have yet to effectively dislodge the militants.

Former military officials and security experts have repeatedly cautioned that air power alone is insufficient to defeat Al-Shabaab. They argue that Somalia requires a well-equipped ground force capable of pursuing insurgents across diverse terrains, including bushlands, rural areas, and barren landscapes.

Al-Shabaab: The Real Winner

If anyone is keeping score, the results are painfully obvious:

• The SNA is exhausted, frustrated, and demoralized.
• The local clan militias that once supported the government are starting to rethink their choices.
• Al-Shabaab, the supposed target of this war, is stronger than ever, thanks to the steady supply of weapons and ammunition they’ve collected from the SNA’s repeated defeats.

Yes, you read that right. Somalia’s army isn’t just failing to defeat Al-Shabaab—it’s accidentally arming them. In some cases, Al-Shabaab has stripped SNA troops of their weapons so many times that one wonders if they should just start placing orders directly with the Defense Ministry. At this point, they’re probably getting a better supply than the actual government forces.

A Leadership in Denial

And where is the government in all of this? Still giving grand speeches, of course. Every few weeks, President Hassan pops up with a new declaration of “progress” and “victory,” completely ignoring the fact that his war strategy is crumbling like a poorly built sandcastle.

Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, ever the voice of unwanted wisdom, pointed out the obvious: “Our problem isn’t a lack of soldiers or weapons. It’s a lack of leadership. If the government keeps repeating the same mistakes, this war will drag on forever, and the only ones benefiting will be Al-Shabaab.”

And let’s not forget the government’s intelligence failures. Take the recent Al-Shabaab bridge-building project in Oobaale, for example. Somehow, the government missed the fact that the militants were busy with a major construction project right under their noses. By the time NISA finally realized what was happening, the bridge was already built, and an airstrike had to be called in to destroy it. It’s almost as if Al-Shabaab had better urban planning than Mogadishu’s city council!

The Case of the Missing Militias

But perhaps the biggest disaster of all is the slow but steady loss of the tribal militias that were supposed to be the government’s key allies in this war. Back in 2022, these militias played a crucial role in pushing Al-Shabaab out of some regions, working alongside the SNA to take back territory. But as the government fumbled its way through this conflict—failing to support them, breaking promises, and generally acting like an unreliable business partner—many of these militias have started to walk away.

Some have even switched sides, choosing to work with Al-Shabaab instead of against them. Why? Because Al-Shabaab, for all its brutality, at least has a clear strategy. Unlike the government, they don’t abandon their fighters, they don’t run out of supplies, and they don’t pretend that losing a town for the tenth time is a sign of progress.

Ahmed A. Yusuf
Email: aayuusuf44@gmail.com