By Ali Haji Warsame

In light of the approaching expiration of the terms of the Parliament and the Federal Government of Somalia on 14 April and 15 May of this year, respectively, there is growing public concern over the country’s political stability and security situation. With this in mind, I recently watched a video clip shared by Samira Gaid of Balqiis Insights, an independent think tank based in Mogadishu. In the clip, Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud addressed remarks concerning the remaining days in the presidential term of former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. President Mohamoud reiterated that President Farmaajo had 54 days remaining in his term and affirmed that he would continue to exercise all presidential powers and rights until the end of his mandate. Once his four-year term expires, President Farmaajo, will formally assume the status of former president.

I have reflected and pondered on this clip. While I did not see a response from former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo at the time, that is not the focus of this discussion. Upon reviewing my calendar, I realized that the presidential term of Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud is set to expire in 54 days from today. My political judgment suggests that once this deadline passes, the president would forfeit the powers, privileges, and immunities associated with the office and, by definition, assume the status of a former head of state. I had long expected that the current president would not allow this critical date to lapse without a clear electoral pathway and a broad political agreement among stakeholders, as failing to do so could risk deepening divisions and destabilizing the country.

It is so inconceivable that someone with President Hassan’s experience and political background would find himself in such a predicament without a clear and defined roadmap for the presidential elections scheduled for May 15, 2026. Many analysts argue that much will change on 15 May 2026 unless a broad political consensus is reached in the country, and the riskiest one relates to the independence and territorial integrity of the nation.

If the current government’s political course suggests that a president can retain office without a clear and legal mandate, it risks setting a deeply troubling precedent. Such a development would lend credibility to the damaging narrative that the Somali people lack the capability and capacity to govern themselves effectively. This perception could dangerously strengthen the argument for partitioning the country, suggesting that external factions could step in where local governance appears to falter.

In this scenario, regional powers and opportunistic forces would feel emboldened to carve up Somalia as they please, driven by their own interests and ambitions. The initial focus may be on Somaliland, which has already declared itself an independent republic, but the ramifications could extend far beyond that singular region. This situation threatens not only the unity of Somalia but also provides a green light to entities that seek to exploit the nation’s vulnerabilities, ultimately undermining the sovereignty and future stability of the entire country.

One other significant risk factor is the possibility of creating a power vacuum in Somalia. If this occurs, the international community may decide to withdraw its engagement with Villa Somalia and instead focus on bolstering the authority of regional states. This shift could begin with a dual-track policy, wherein external support and recognition are redirected to these regional entities.

Such a change could have dire consequences for the country’s stability and governance. It would likely revert Somalia to a state reminiscent of its transitional era, marked by fragmentation and conflict among various factions. In this scenario, the existing political structures could weaken further, complicating efforts to establish a unified and effective government. Reconstituting a stable national framework amidst this fragmentation would prove exceedingly difficult, as it would require extensive negotiation and compromise among diverse interest groups and power holders. Ultimately, this could jeopardize the progress made in rebuilding the nation and undermine any prospects for lasting peace and development.

In addition to the two previously mentioned scenarios, a crucial outcome tied to the political discourse in the South West State (SWS) will significantly influence the stability and future of Villa Somalia, the seat of authority in Mogadishu. The current President of the South West State, Abdiaziz Laftagareen, has long been regarded as a steadfast ally of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud. Until recently, Laftagareen granted Mohamoud substantial support, enabling him to pursue controversial constitutional amendments and engage in a review process that has stirred considerable debate.

However, the recent rift between the two leaders has raised questions about the underlying causes of this fallout. The motivations behind Laftagareen’s shift in allegiance and his break from the previously harmonious relationship with President Mohamoud remain complex and challenging to unravel. This split could potentially reshape the political landscape in the region, making it imperative to analyze the dynamics at play and the broader implications for governance in South Somalia. The evolving political climate not only threatens the alliance between these leaders but may also impact the overall stability of Villa Somalia and the policies affecting the nation as a whole.

In his recent televised speech, the President of South West State skilfully put President Hassan in the spotlight, citing an unprovoked dispute to eliminate him without due process or at least dismantle the SW State unless his imposed decision goes through. President Laftagareen added that he was unable to process this treacherous behaviour from President Hassan Sh. Mohamoud, who devised a plan to overthrow him during his absence on the Umra this year.

Whatever the outcome of the fate of President Laftagareen will be, it will leave his mark on the presidency of Hassan Sh. Mohamoud, and it will coincide with the end of his term, depriving him of a vital time to focus on the reconciliation efforts to mend fences with other opposition figures in Mogadishu and states such as Puntland and Jubbaland. It is also possible for the states of GalMudug and HirShabelle to disconnect from Villa Somalia and leave the president’s camp early, and that will be the final straw.

As an observer of Somali politics, I have never imagined that the same scenario would unfold under the watch of Hassan Sh Mohamoud and his Dan Qaran government. I had expected that he would steer clear of the same challenges faced by his predecessor, for whom he had been the most vocal opposition spokesperson.

As one of those who supported his bid for candidacy, I believed that he could perform better if given another opportunity. Drawing on his experience from the first term, he could address and rectify his past mistakes. This was the expectation of many of his supporters. It is an opportunity that has never occurred in Somali politics in the past 66 years, and understandably so. However, many observers noted that the re-elected president seemed to be deeply frustrated and discontented with his first term. The anger appeared to drive him towards irrational actions and extreme behavior.

Many international observers of Somalia’s internal politics believe that the country’s political elite are generally resistant and immune to good governance, political compromise, and the nationalist tendency to prioritise the interests of Somalia. As a result, they are seen as unworthy of leading this great nation, and the situation on the ground supports this perspective.

Having said that, I do still think the unthinkable, which is whether President Hassan Sh. Mohamoud is going to put down his sword and bring the country together by calling for a proper and broad political consensus to agree on the election modalities and peaceful transition of power, starting with the cessation of hostilities in the South West state, accommodating the leaders of the Future Council, including Puntland and Jubbaland, as well as Mogadishu based opposition. Otherwise, the county will fall off the cliff, an untenable outcome, which will determine the destiny of this country for the next century.

I was told that his predecessor, President Farmaajo, recently met with President Hassan and advised him to seek political consensus among all stakeholders and to take action now. He emphasized that President Hassan is strong as long as his mandate is legally binding, but he will lose that power once his term officially ends. Whether President Hassan will heed this prompt advice remains uncertain and perhaps a matter of guesswork.

The President still has 54 days to make necessary amends. It remains to be seen whether he will take advantage of this time.

Ali Haji Warsame MBA MA CPA CGMA
Email: ali.warsame@hiilinstitute.org
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Ali Haji is the executive Director of Hiil Institute for Governance, the former Puntland Minister of Education and WardheerNews contributor.