Baidoa (WDN) — Baidoa is being pushed into an increasingly intolerable humanitarian and security crisis as fighting between forces aligned with Somalia’s Federal Government and supporters of former South West President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen continues to expose civilians to artillery, airstrikes and armed confrontation.

What makes the situation particularly alarming is the reported use of increasingly sophisticated military capabilities in what remains, at its core, a political dispute over who governs South West State. Laftagareen has appealed to the United States, the United Nations, European Union, African Union and IGAD, urging international actors to condemn what he describes as a military assault on South West State and to launch an independent investigation into the reported air operations.

Baidoa’s Civilians Caught in a Political War

In his appeal, Laftagareen said federal military operations against his administration and its supporters had continued for approximately six months, with aerial operations intensifying during the past two months.

He alleged that aircraft, including F16, had been used in operations around Baidoa and claimed that civilians and livestock had been killed. Those claims have not been independently verified.

But the broader civilian danger is no longer theoretical. Fighting around Baidoa in recent weeks has already caused casualties and forced residents to flee their homes. The Associated Press reported that Bay Regional Hospital treated 71 wounded people, including 15 women, following fighting on September 3, while one civilian death was reported.

The question is therefore becoming increasingly urgent: how much military force can be used in a political confrontation before the civilian population pays the price?

Drones and F-16s Raise the Stakes

The most serious allegations concern the reported use of drones and F-16 fighter aircraft. Laftagareen’s office has accused Türkiye-linked military capabilities of being used in strikes around Baidoa and in Doolow, including an attack on the residence of former Somali Correctional Service Commander General Mahad Abdirahman Aden, known as General Shub.

The former Southwest administration alleged that an F-16 was involved in the Doolow operation and accused the Federal Government of directing the attack.

Those allegations remain unproven. Somalia’s Federal Government denied involvement in the Doolow incident and said preliminary information suggested that explosions at the residence may have resulted from explosives being prepared inside the house. The government said it would establish a fact-finding committee to investigate the incident. That competing account makes an independent investigation all the more important.

When Military Power Enters a Political Dispute

The central concern is not simply whether Somalia possesses modern military aircraft or armed drones. It is where and why such weapons are being used.

Drones and fighter aircraft are designed for military operations against armed threats. Their use in densely populated areas during a political confrontation carries a fundamentally different level of risk.

Baidoa is not an empty battlefield. It is a major urban centre and humanitarian hub, home to large numbers of civilians and displaced people. Recent fighting has already disrupted civilian life and humanitarian operations.

If advanced air power is being used against forces aligned with one political faction in a dispute over regional authority, the consequences extend beyond the immediate targets. Homes, markets, roads, businesses and families can all become exposed to the conflict.

That is why the alleged use of F-16s and armed drones should be treated as a red-line issue for civilian protection, regardless of which political side is responsible.

The Conflict Has a Political Origin

At the heart of the crisis is not an external invasion or a conventional war between two states. It is a dispute over political authority, legitimacy and the future leadership of Southwest State.

Federal forces took control of Baidoa in March, after which Laftagareen resigned. A new Southwest administration was subsequently established with federal backing. Fighting involving forces loyal to Laftagareen has since repeatedly challenged that political settlement. That context matters.

When the underlying dispute is political, escalating the military response can deepen rather than resolve the disagreement. Every additional airstrike risks creating new grievances, displacement and demands for retaliation.

The result could be a cycle in which a political disagreement increasingly acquires the characteristics of an armed conflict.

An International Investigation Is Now Essential

Laftagareen has asked international partners to investigate the reported attacks and establish responsibility.

Such an investigation should examine the identity of the aircraft involved, the targets selected, the legal authority for each operation, the presence of civilians in affected areas, the chain of command and any civilian casualties or property damage.

It should also establish whether military capabilities supplied or supported by foreign partners are being used consistently with their intended purpose and applicable legal obligations.

No political faction should be presumed guilty before the facts are established. But neither should allegations involving civilian harm be dismissed without investigation.

Baidoa Cannot Become the Battlefield for a Political Settlement

Somalia’s political disputes cannot be solved from the air. If the central disagreement is about who should govern South West State, the ultimate solution must come through a political process capable of addressing competing claims of legitimacy and authority.

Military aircraft may be capable of destroying positions. They cannot settle the political question that produced the confrontation in the first place. For the people of Baidoa, the immediate priority is simpler: an end to attacks, protection from further violence and the restoration of normal civilian life.

The international community should therefore focus not only on who controls Baidoa, but on whether civilians are being protected while that political dispute unfolds. Because when a political crisis reaches the point where drones and fighter aircraft are reportedly being used over civilian areas, the question is no longer merely who wins the political contest. The question is how much of Baidoa will be left for civilians to return to when it is over.

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