By Balal Mohamed Cusman

At the recent United Nations and African Union discussions on the future of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), the stakes could not have been clearer. The African Union Chairman, Mr. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, issued a stark warning – unless AUSSOM secures $196 million in 2025, the “hard-won achievements risk being undone.” His words capture the urgency of Somalia’s moment.

Yet, the only sustainable guarantor of Somalia’s security, barely featured in the debate. This omission reveals a troubling flaw in the international community’s approach – treating Somalia’s security crisis as a temporary emergency rather than addressing the structural foundations of peace.

As someone who has served at the heart of Somalia’s foreign and security policy, I have witnessed how fragile and unreliable international support can be. AMISOM, ATMIS and now AUSSOM have all relied on unpredictable donor contributions. When those priorities shift, Somalia is left dangerously exposed. Therefore, without sustained investment in Somali institutions, missions like AUSSOM become expensive stopgaps, unable to deliver the stability they promise.

The crisis is not only about money. Somalia’s political situation is deteriorating rapidly as well. Disputes over constitutional reforms, rampant corruption, federal-state relations and elections are tearing the fabric of governance apart. Instead of uniting against the threat of extremism, leaders are consumed by corruption and rivalries that paralyze decision-making. For ordinary Somalis, this deepening dysfunction is more than political theatre, it is a direct threat to their safety, livelihoods and hope for a better future. Extremist groups like al-Shabaab and ISIS though thrive in such chaos, embedding themselves deeper into communities while politicians remain gridlocked and busy enriching themselves. Somalia today is more vulnerable than it has been in many years.

If AUSSOM’s funding collapses, the consequences will reverberate far beyond Somalia’s borders. Militants could swiftly reclaim lost territory, plunging Mogadishu back into insecurity and shutting down humanitarian access in rural areas. Neighbouring countries could also face new waves of displacement and cross-border violence. Off Somalia’s coast, piracy could also re-emerge in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, threatening one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes. Instability in Somalia is therefore never just Somalia’s problem, it is a regional and global security risk.

International partners must stop repeating the cycle of crisis response and start addressing the roots of instability. That means shifting focus toward:

1) Holding free and fair elections on time once the current government’s mandate expires, so that public trust in Somalia’s political institutions can be rejuvenated

2) Building a professional Somali National Army capable of defending the country without indefinite reliance on foreign troops.

3) Curbing foreign meddling that arms factions and fuels division, while holding accountable those who profit from instability.

4) And most importantly, prioritizing Somali-led solutions to Somalia’s problems, ensuring that national ownership and leadership drive both security and political reforms, rather than externally imposed fixes.

We have already seen proof that Somali-led solutions can work. Puntland’s regional forces recently pushed back ISIS militants in Bari region without international troops on the ground. Their success was not just a military victory, it was a reminder that when Somali forces are properly trained and resourced, they can defend their own communities. Redirecting even a fraction of peacekeeping budgets into the Somali National Army would yield far greater and more sustainable results than endlessly funding foreign-led missions.

Somalia’s future and by extension, the security of the Horn of Africa and the wider world depends on whether we seize this moment to chart a different course. AUSSOM may be necessary in the short term, but it cannot be the endgame. The real test lies in whether Somalia emerges from this cycle of dependency with institutions strong enough to stand on their own.

Somalis deserve more than a rented peace. They deserve the chance to rebuild their country with dignity, sovereignty and hope. That requires international partners to support Somali-led solutions, not overshadow them. The alternative, pouring money into foreign troops while ignoring political legitimacy and national capacity will only guarantee that we are back here again in a few years, debating the collapse of yet another mission. The world cannot afford that. And Somalia certainly cannot.

Balal Mohamed Cusman
Email: bcusman@gmail.com 
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Balalis is a Former State Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Somalia. X:@BalalCusman Skype:bcusman1