The region has become a critical theater for global rivalries amid Israel’s recognition of breakaway Somaliland and Washington’s counterterrorism efforts.

By Matthew Mpoke Bigg, New York times

When President Trump said in December that Somalia was “not even a country,” the U.S. military was in the midst of one of its most aggressive bombing campaigns that the East African nation has seen.

Since Mr. Trump took office last year, the Pentagon’s U.S. Africa Command has hit militant targets in Somalia around 150 times, far more than any other country. Weeks after Mr. Trump’s insult, Israel became the first nation to formally recognize Somaliland, a breakaway region that has sought independence from Somalia for decades.

Taken together, Israel’s decision, which has drawn swift criticism from China, France, Britain, Denmark and Russia, as well as the African Union, and Washington’s aggressive military campaign in Somalia, are signs that the Horn of Africa is emerging as a critical theater for global rivalries.

An overriding concern for countries involved in the region is access to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, among the most important waterways in the world, especially for Houthi rebels operating in Yemen. Analysts said that the driving force behind Israel’s recognition of Somaliland now was its conflict with the Houthis, which has ties to Iran.An increased Israeli footprint in Somaliland could help deter weapons smuggling by the Houthis into Yemen, said Asher Lubotzky, an Israel foreign policy expert at the University of Houston. “What Israel did is not because of any regional alliances or logic, but more of a very specific interest in tackling Iran and the Houthis,” he said.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said that the agreement with Somaliland was in the spirit of the Abraham Accords, a series of deals that since 2020 has established relations between Israel and countries including Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates.

Israel has been looking to expand support for the Accords to other countries with Muslim majorities.The United States has defended Israel’s right to conduct diplomatic business as a sovereign state and said its stance on recognizing Somaliland remained unchanged, though Mr. Trump has promised to “study” the issue.

Several analysts argue that there is no straight line to U.S. recognition, in part because Washington’s highest priority in Somalia appears to be its bombing campaign against the militant groups Al Shabab and the Islamic State.

In January, U.S. Africa Command struck what it said were Islamic State and Al Qaeda targets in Somalia almost daily, and on each occasion it made a point of saying the attacks were conducted in coordination with the Somali government.

“We do not want to imperil our ability to carry out these strikes against Somalia terrorism,” said Cameron Hudson, an Africa expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington, summarizing an argument he said has been made by senior U.S. security officials. That strategy could be compromised if Washington were to recognize Somaliland.

How long the United States will successfully walk the tightrope is unclear. In the meantime, an increasing number of global rivalries and ambitions are playing out in the region.For decades, the Horn of Africa was a minor concern for countries outside the region.

Somalia’s president, Siad Barre, fell in 1991, triggering a civil war, and until 2012 the country had no functioning central government. Since then, the country’s governments have struggled to secure control and have been backed by an African Union peacekeeping force and the United Nations.

Read the full article- As U.S. Bombs Somalia, Israel Shakes Status Quo on Horn of Africa

Source: New York Times