By Abdiweli Garad, PhD
Introduction
As Somalia advances in its statebuilding process, complicated by complex dynamics and competing political agendas, the unity and strategic coherence of Puntland, the SSC-Khaatumo (SSCK), and Maakhir (covering the Sool, Sanaag, Bari, Nugaal, and Mudug communities) remain critically important. Recent political developments, especially regarding the status of the Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn (SSC) regions and relations with the Federal Government in Mogadishu under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM), warrant careful attention.
This piece provides a dialectical discussion of the diverse political landscapes within the region commonly called Puntland, recognising that this label might itself be disputed. It begins by analysing the situation of the SSCK, then moves on to Maakhir, and finally considers the wider Puntland context. Its aim is to engage constructively with each individual polity, fostering foresight, historical understanding, and a dedication to collective stability rather than short-term political gains.
To the SSCK: The Imperative of Strategic Patience and Grounded Realism
Your recent political and organisational achievements, culminating in the establishment of the SSC administration, are significant and commendable. However, the wisdom inherent in the Somali proverb, “lugtii jeeni dhaaftaa waa jabtaa” (the hindlimb that overtakes the forelimb breaks), serves as a pertinent warning. Relying too heavily on President Hassan Sheikh’s currently contested political project entails substantial risks. Notably, it threatens to destabilise neighbouring Puntland, an instability that would inevitably have adverse effects across the region and might undo the SSCK’s progress.
Historical patterns of alignment provide vital insights. While a sense of fraternity exists, the people in Sanaag Bari have traditionally maintained closer socio-political bonds with Puntland’s Bari regions than with the SSCK areas. Ignoring this historical reality in favour of new configurations mainly driven by Mogadishu’s agenda risks damaging key intra-relational ties. As a result, four main imperatives arise:
1) Safeguard Hard-Won Gains: Somalia’s state-building endeavour remains fragile and contested. Becoming instrumentalised for HSM’s ambitions could jeopardise the tangible accomplishments secured under the SSCK framework. The SSCK freedom and local agency gained through blood and bone must remain paramount.
2) Reality on the Ground Digitates: SSCK should not assume that becoming a Federal Member State is aligned with the interests of HSM. Therefore, it is essential not to allow HSM to influence your upcoming elections or the establishment of the SSCK as a new tool to further his agenda under the FGS’s banner. Just as you have protected your internal affairs from Somaliland and Puntland, apply the same level of caution with the HSM’s FGS. Be wary of being exploited by surrogate MPs who have transitioned from Deni to HSM and are affiliated with the SSCK.
3) Consolidate Through SSCK Unity: The SSCK structure provides a vital platform for Somali unity and represents a significant opportunity for its populace. Ensure that actions are guided by realities on the ground and the collective will of the SSCK communities, rather than external pressures.
4) Respect Puntland’s Interests: While navigating the challenges HSM poses, it is crucial to avoid actions that directly infringe upon or destabilise Puntland’s territories and administrative framework. Prudence dictates respect for existing political entities, however complex.
To the Maakhir: Articulating Grievances with Strategic Clarity
Legitimate grievances concerning President Deni’s perceived manipulation of parliamentary selection processes are acknowledged. Fair representation and due process are fundamental demands. However, the expression of these grievances must not eclipse strategic focus or obscure more profound historical affinities.
Historical analysis reveals a consistent pattern: despite their common roots, Suldaan Mohamoud Ali Shire and his constituency (Sanaag) share a closer historical alignment and socio-political kinship with the Bari than with the SSCK regions. Your natural socio-political orientation may align more closely with Reer Bari (the easterners) than Reer Waqooyi (the northerners). While articulating grievances is necessary, it should not cloud long-term strategic judgement or lead to alliances that contradict enduring historical and cultural ties.
If the current pathways within existing structures prove unsatisfactory, an alternative worth considering is convening an independent Maakhir conference. This would create a platform free from undue influence, whether from SSCK political currents, HSM’s Mogadishu-centric agenda, or Deni’s program. Such a gathering would enable the Maakhir community to deliberate independently and define their political future based solely on their collective interests and aspirations.
To Puntland: Leadership, Inclusivity, and Confronting Challenges
Puntland represented the most balanced approach among the three prevailing ideas regarding Somalia’s state-building initiatives. One proposed secession, while another advocated for a centralised authority. Neither of these options offered a viable remedy for reuniting the fractured nation. In contrast, Puntland embraced a third path: unity through federalism. This approach was recognised as the cornerstone of federalism in the region.
With the Mudug, Nugaal, and Bari regions as its core constituencies, Puntland’s path forward requires a clear recognition of significant challenges. Failing to attempt reconciling fundamentally incompatible positions—such as maintaining centralised control of power while ignoring legitimate grievances for inclusion—is unsustainable.
As the well-known Somali poem illustrates, “Rag cadaalad waayaa sidii cawsha kalayaac,” which can be interpreted as “Men without justice are like the chattering of deer” in English. This emphasises that marginalised groups will inevitably find alternative ways of expressing themselves and advocating if their concerns and voices remain persistently ignored. The implication is that systemic injustice and lack of representation may cause disenfranchised populations to seek unconventional paths, reflecting a fundamental need for recognition and equity in sociopolitical discourse.
Recent incidents, such as the controversy surrounding Dhooba Daareed and the exclusion of figures like Minister Jamal from the selection process in the Federal Parliament, along with the complex status of the SSC regions, are not peripheral issues. They indicate deeper tensions that require urgent and principled attention. To promote unity and stability, two essential actions are proposed:
1. Engage the SSCK as a Peer, not a Proxy: Resist any temptation to view SSCK alignment with HSM merely as a counterweight. Instead, proactively recognise the SSCK administration as a legitimate federal member-state entity. Pursue structured collaboration and dialogue based on mutual respect and shared fraternity interests, aiming for a modus vivendi that collectively strengthens the Northeast.
2. Demonstrate Statesmanship Towards the Maakhir: Actively reassure the Maakhir community that their future is respected within the broader brethren framework. Facilitate genuine dialogue, address their representation grievances earnestly, and present a credible vision of inclusion and partnership. Authentic statesmanship involves empowering brethren, not diminishing them.
Conclusion: Unity Forged Through Principle, Not Expediency
The region faces a critical juncture. External pressures, particularly from a federal government seeking greater centralisation, pose substantial challenges. Navigating this landscape requires more than tactical manoeuvring; it demands adherence to principle, respect for historical bonds, and a commitment to grounded governance. The SSCK must balance ambition with the cautionary wisdom of tradition. The Maakhir must channel grievances into constructive, independent political action consistent with their historical affinities. Puntland leadership must demonstrate inclusivity and statesmanship, recognising that genuine strength derives from unity built on respect and equitable partnership.
Mogadishu deserves recognition as the capital, and its leadership must act in the best interest of all without resorting to exploitation. Puntland, SSCK, and Maakhir politicians are encouraged to collaborate with the Federal Government of Somalia. However, a sustainable future for northeastern Somalia can only be achieved by prioritising collective stability and agency over alignment with the ever-changing political dynamics of Mogadishu within the fragile federation.
Abdiweli Garad, PhD
Email: aogarad@gmail.com
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Abdiweli Garad is a researcher focusing on state-building interventions and the associated security complexities of the HoA.
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