By Mohamed A Yasin

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has announced a national consultative conference aimed at bringing together Somalia’s political stakeholders to discuss the country’s future. This initiative comes after nearly four years of persistent calls from various political actors, federal member states (FMS), and civil society groups urging the president to hold an inclusive political dialogue. However, he had repeatedly resisted these demands, opting instead for unilateral decision-making that has contributed to the country’s ongoing political crisis.

Now, as widely recognized, this decision was not made voluntarily but rather under immense pressure from the international community, particularly the United Kingdom and the United States. These foreign partners, who have invested heavily in Somalia’s state-building efforts over the past two decades, have grown increasingly alarmed by President Hassan’s governance style. His administration has been marked by corruption, the dismantling of government institutions to consolidate power within his close allies, the politicization of security forces, and the unilateral rewriting of the constitution. These actions have not only battered trust in the federal government but have also brought the country dangerously close to political and security collapse.

With his term nearing its end, the international community has taken decisive action, recognizing that President Hassan’s mismanagement risks handing the country over to extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab. His focus on securing personal and political advantages, rather than strengthening national governance, has left Somalia fragile, divided, and unable to adequately address pressing security and economic concerns.

Ensuring a Credible Conference: The Need for a Clear Agenda

Given President Hassan’s track record of manipulation, broken promises, and exclusionary politics, it is imperative that the conference’s agenda be made transparent and publicly declared. Without a clearly defined framework, there is a strong likelihood that the conference will be used as a political tool to prolong his tenure and justify his unconstitutional amendments. The agenda must include, at a minimum, the following key points:

1. Recognition of the Provisional Constitution – A firm commitment that the Provisional Federal Constitution (PFC), as previously agreed upon, remains the supreme law of the land and cannot be altered unilaterally.

2. Reversal of Constitutional Manipulation – An explicit rejection of President Hassan’s self-authored constitutional changes, which sought to centralize power in his office at the expense of the federal system.

3. Dissolution of the Partisan Election Commission – The immediate disbandment of the electoral commission handpicked by the president without consultation with key political stakeholders, which undermines the credibility of future elections.

4. Restoration of Development Funds to Federal Member States – The immediate release of international development funds that President Hassan has used as a political weapon by selectively withholding them from Puntland and Jubaland federal member states, particularly to isolate Jubaland FMS for not aligning with his administration’s policies. These funds, intended for nationwide development, must be equitably distributed without political bias.

5. Depoliticization of the National Army – A binding agreement that government security forces will not be used as a tool to intimidate political opponents, as was the case in Jubaland and other states where the army was deployed for political purposes.

6. Protection of Civil Aviation from Political Interference – An end to the president’s practice of blocking civilian flights for political reasons, which has previously been used to isolate regions that do not align with his administration’s policies.

7. Halt to the Illegal Sale of Government Land – An immediate cessation of unauthorized land sales and a transparent accounting of the revenues generated from past sales, which have yet to be deposited into the national treasury.

These agenda points must be explicitly stated in the conference proceedings, as they represent the shared concerns of Somalia’s key political stakeholders. Without these guarantees, there is a serious risk that President Hassan will manipulate the discussions, diverting attention toward legitimizing his unconstitutional amendments and securing control over the electoral process.

Key Discussion Points for a Productive Dialogue

To ensure the conference serves its intended purpose, discussions should focus on:

1. Establishing a Consensus-Based Election Commission – A neutral electoral body agreed upon by all stakeholders, ensuring credibility and fairness in upcoming elections.

2. Election Model Realities – While a one-person, one-vote system is the long-term goal, the current security situation does not permit its immediate implementation. A pragmatic and agreed-upon electoral model must be established.

3. Continuation of the Indirect Electoral System – Given the absence of necessary security, infrastructure, and legal frameworks for universal suffrage, the indirect electoral model used in past elections should remain in place until a viable alternative is developed.

4. National Security Priorities – A unified and coordinated approach to combating Al-Shabaab and ISIS, which requires consensus on governance structures and security policies.

Challenges and the Issue of the Venue

One of the most significant challenges facing this conference is the issue of the venue. Presidents Said Abdullahi Deni of Puntland and Ahmed Madobe of Jubaland—both key political stakeholders—have expressed deep concerns about their security in Mogadishu. Given the federal government’s history of using security forces for political intimidation, they do not trust that their safety can be guaranteed in the capital.

This lack of trust is a damning indictment of President Hassan’s administration. It is a national disgrace that two federal member state leaders feel unsafe in their own capital, underscoring the deep divisions that have worsened under his leadership. Reports indicate that the international community is aware of this concern and has insisted that President Hassan accommodate these security fears by arranging a neutral venue.

A Pivotal Moment for Somalia’s Political Future

The success or failure of this conference will determine Somalia’s political trajectory in the coming years. If conducted with sincerity, transparency, and genuine commitment to inclusivity, it could serve as a crucial turning point in addressing the deep-rooted issues that have hindered Somalia’s stability and development. However, if the conference is used as a tool for political manipulation, it will only deepen the country’s crises, pushing Somalia further into instability.

I sincerely hope that this conference, as announced by President Hassan, will lead to meaningful agreements that promote political stability, uphold the federal system, and restore trust between Somalia’s political actors.

Mohamed A Yasin
Email: moyasin680@gmail.com