By Abdi Ali Raghe

Introduction

As Somalia approaches a critical election period, now less than a year away, political divisions are becoming increasingly pronounced. The Federal Government (FG) remains firm in its commitment to implementing a one person, one vote (1P1V) system in the upcoming local elections. According to the proposed model, political associations registered with the electoral commission would contest the local elections, and the top three associations receiving the most votes would be recognized as national parties eligible to participate in the national elections.

While the aspiration for 1P1V is a dream long cherished by Somalis and widely welcomed in principle, the opposition and Federal Member States (FMS) including those aligned with Government, though not expressing openly, have voiced serious concerns about the feasibility of rolling out such a system within the limited timeframe. They argue that rushing this process without adequate preparation risks failure, citing limited institutional capacity, unresolved legal frameworks, and ongoing insecurity in many parts of the country. The debate is not about the destination, but rather the path and pace we take to get there.

As the Somali proverb says, If the rope is stretched too tightly, it snaps. Forcing a contested electoral process without broad consensus could ignite open conflict and unravel the progress we have made. No one will benefit from a collapsed electoral roadmap.

At the core of this standoff lies a fundamental disagreement over the legal framework that should govern the electoral process. This underscores the urgent need to design an electoral model that is inclusive, credible, and realistically implementable within the country’s current political and security context. Any model adopted must serve to unite, not divide, and must place national cohesion and stability above all other considerations.

In this spirit, I propose an alternative electoral model, a pragmatic and transitional step toward universal suffrage that also addresses legitimate fears of manipulation and exclusion. This model seeks to balance the drive for electoral reform and democratic participation with the imperative of preserving political stability.

This model seeks to strike a balance: advancing democratic reforms and popular participation without undermining political stability. It is grounded in the principles of incremental progress, institutional readiness, and broad-based stakeholder engagement, ensuring that all actors are represented, heard, and invested in the outcome.

Let us work together to pursue a win-win solution, one that safeguards Somalia’s unity, strengthens our democratic foundations, and prepares the ground for a credible and peaceful transition.

Somalia’s 2026 Elections: Proposed Enhanced Electoral Model

Since full universal suffrage is not yet achievable in Somalia given the current realities, this election model represents an incremental yet meaningful step toward that goal. The proposed model introduces an expanded electoral college system in which all clan members associated with a given seat are granted the opportunity to vote for that seat, without an upper limit on participation. This approach offers a realistic, time-bound, and broadly acceptable pathway to deliver credible federal elections within the set timeframe before May 2026.

Clan Constituencies and Geographic Seat Distribution.

To secure fair and practical representation for the whole country, the electoral map is divided into seven geographic electoral zones: Puntland, Jubaland, South-West, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Khatumo, and Somaliland. For Somaliland voters, the ballot will take place in Mogadishu, which is designated as a standalone constituency. Five polling stations will operate across the capital, each subdivided into three polling centres, ensuring manageable queues and easy access for all eligible participants.

Each sub-clan that shares a seat or seats is considered a clan constituency, while each Federal Member State will retain its current number of parliamentary seats as allocated under the 4.5 clan-based framework. Following extensive consultation, the Federal Electoral Commission (FEC) will announce the total number of clan-based constituencies across the country, along with the corresponding geographic electoral constituencies. The seats of each state will be geographically distributed into at least five electoral constituencies per state. Each constituency will host a maximum of five polling stations, and every polling station will manage no more than three polling centers.

Each seat will be assigned to a specific geographic constituency and polling station, and only eligible sub-clan voters residing in that area will vote for the corresponding seat. This approach ensures fair clan representation while promoting administrative efficiency, facilitating effective coordination of voter registration, polling logistics, and electoral oversight. In cases where a sub-clan shares more than one seat and its population is distributed across multiple geographic constituencies in significant numbers; the seats may be geographically allocated to ensure fair representation and reflect the demographic spread of the sub-clan

This standardized 7-5-3 model simplifies logistical planning, ballot preparation, staff training, and voter education, while also ensuring accessible polling locations for both urban and rural populations. Once the seat allocation across state constituencies is finalized, the Federal Electoral Commission (FEC) will officially publish the distribution. In cases where a clan possesses multiple seats, all those seats will be grouped at a single polling station, allowing every eligible clan member to register and vote in all the clan’s contests. The Commission will then notify each sub-clan of the specific constituency or polling station where its seat(s) have been allocated and invite eligible members to register accordingly.

Voter Registration

Once both political agreements and technical preparations are finalized, the Federal Electoral Commission (FEC) will announce the official opening and closing dates for voter registration. The registration process will be organized by polling centers, with sub-clans sharing seat(s) registered as a single bloc. Unlike in the past, voter registration will now be open to all members of a clan that shares one or more seats. Individuals will register only at the polling center where their clan’s seat(s) have been assigned

Each eligible voter will register only once at their designated polling center and for their assigned seat, appearing on a single voter roll. To uphold the integrity of the process and prevent duplication or fraud, biometric systems will be used throughout the registration phase. With a maximum of three seats allocated per polling station, the FEC will maintain three distinct voter rolls at each location. This arrangement ensures accurate ballot distribution and facilitates efficient voter verification on election day.

Single-Day Nationwide Poll under Unified Management

The federal parliamentary election will be conducted by a reconstituted Federal Electoral Commission (FEC), comprising neutral and competent individuals jointly endorsed by all key stakeholders. Voting will take place on a single day across the entire country. This synchronized approach reduces logistical complexity, enhances security, and significantly limits opportunities for electoral manipulation and fraud. Past experiences, where elections were staggered over several months with only one or two seats contested each week, have demonstrated a high risk of interference and irregularities. In contrast, a single-day nationwide poll allows for coordinated observation, efficient results management, and timely, transparent public reporting.

Clan-Based Candidacy and Inclusive Voter Participation

Each seat is contested exclusively by candidates from the sub-clan to which the seat is traditionally assigned. In cases where a sub-clan holds more than one seat, each eligible voter will receive multiple ballot papers, one for each seat. These ballots will be color-coded to clearly distinguish between the different contests. Voters may cast one vote per seat, ensuring that each contest is conducted fairly and transparently. This arrangement preserves the clan-specific nature of political representation while ensuring the voting process is inclusive, accessible, and transparent for all eligible sub-clan members. It promotes broader participation, enhances community ownership of the process, and reinforces the legitimacy of the electoral outcome.

Color-Coded Ballots and Boxes for Illiteracy-Friendly Voting

To ensure clarity and ease of use for voters with limited literacy, each seat will be assigned a distinct color. Both the ballot paper and the ballot box for each seat will be marked in that color. Clear visual cues, including clan names/numbers and recognizable symbols, will guide voters to the correct boxes. Poll workers will assist in verifying ballot placement. This color-coded system helps reduce errors, prevents spoiled ballots, and enables all voters to cast their votes confidently and correctly.

Counting, Consolidation, and Results Announcement

After voting ends, ballot boxes will be opened in the presence of candidate agents, independent observers, and respected community elders. Results will be posted publicly at the polling station and transmitted digitally to constituency tally centers and to the FEC’s central database in Mogadishu. The FEC will oversee the aggregation, certification, and publication of results according to pre-established deadlines, ensuring a transparent and accountable conclusion to the electoral process.

Election of the President

Upon the reconstitution of parliament, the next critical step in the electoral process is the election of the president. In accordance with Somalia’s constitutional framework, this responsibility lies with the newly sworn-in members of parliament, who are mandated to elect the president through a joint session.

Why This Model Works

• A politically acceptable compromise: The model balances continuity and reform in a way that both sides of the political divide can support, increasing the likelihood of consensus among federal and state stakeholders.
• A step toward universal suffrage: While preserving the 4.5 clan-based structure, the model allows clan members to vote for multiple seats, offering a transitional step toward broader democratic participation.
• Preserves the 4.5 power-sharing formula:  Each seat remains assigned to its traditional sub-clan, maintaining inclusive representation and reinforcing political stability.
• Improve voter participation: Voter registration and participation are open to all clan members, encouraging wider civic engagement across communities.
• Streamlines election logistics: The standardized 5-5-3 structure across all states simplifies electoral planning, staff training, and ballot organization.
• Enables inclusive and accessible voting: The use of color-coded ballots and boxes ensures that even voters with limited literacy can vote independently and confidently.
• Promotes transparency and trust: A single-day national vote under the authority of a unified Federal Electoral Commission, with real-time result transmission and public display, strengthens credibility and minimizes the risk of manipulation.

Abdi Ali Raghe
Email: ragheone@gmail.com