Now that Somaliland’s much anticipated presidential election is behind us and the victorious Kulmiye party leadership in the driver seat, what does the future holds for the down-trodden citizens? Is this a beginning of new progressive era or politics of business as usual of the status quo? What does this victory mean for the average Somali citizens regardless of their regional and political affiliations? Is the new leadership up to the bigger challenges of social and political stability in the Somali peninsula or will it keep its head in the sand like its predecessors? Is Mr. Silanyo’s regime willing to redress some of the festering institutional, economic and developmental injustice within the Somaliland regions itself? Is the leadership better equipped in terms of integrity and vision to deal with other simmering tribal tensions of both eastern and western parts of the region?

This short comment raises these obvious issues without delving into the specifics at the moment. I will leave for the casual observer to digest through. But let me first be clear that I have never felt much gung-ho about the election fervor given the narrow ideological scope associated it. Still, I'm glad like many others that things ended in orderly fashion and not because of the hyperbolic credentials or other purported international goodies on the way, but because of the fact that the exercise ended without major incident. After all, we are talking about crude paternalistic system where meritocracy and fairness are after thoughts at best and "survival of the fittest" at any cost is the norm. It could have been much worse, God forbid!

So far, except for the familiar gossip behind the scenes, there is no telling where the leadership stands on these issues and thus answers for many brain-teasing questions like the above ones remain elusive as ever. The new leadership was unable to articulate any of these crucial issues-- neither in their platform, campaign nor in the victory speech. Sure, there was a talk about stamping out the evil corruption and malfeasance from the civil sector, which is lofty idea per se if there are genuine intentions. However, even in this case, one fails to see the logic behind it since no one knows the specifics of how or where to start the hard job. For instance, despite all rhetoric to curb a runaway government spending and other waste there is no mention of the presidential and security sector that allegedly accounts for more than 50 % of the meager budget of the administration. This topic has been a lighting rod for the Kulmiye gangs against Rayale’s regime over the years in which even his personal salary became a viral topic. But as Ahmed Silanyo & Co. takes the helm these things seem to be relegated into the back burner and will likely remain a non-issue in the near future.

One would have hoped that a man with much-touted experience like Silanyo could have done a better job by being forthright about these burning larger issues but that has not been the case thus far. This is not necessarily a mere coincidence but rather a calculated political stance and the past is a clue. The proverbial leopard skin color rings the bell when it comes to the political anomalies of Mr. Silanyo and his old league, including Gen Aided and Col Yusuf among others. These people will never come from their checkered past no matter what. Who else can galvanize clannish grievance so cleverly, however legitimate it might be, into new heights and even at the expense of the very existence of an entire race and its nationhood?

If experience is any guide, his leadership style and core convictions of his political affiliates will not change. One cannot easily divorce future events from the past as person’s political leanings are often molded by their intrinsic worldviews and other inclinations of bygone eras. Though reportedly membership of the party morphed over time and space, majority of Kulmiye party's core supporters are products of former sectarian group (SNM) with the sole purpose of championing the paramount interest of particular group. I’m not talking about the average voter who yearns for any change for the sake of it due to the inextricable political and socio-economic reality. I’m referring to the old guard, hang-ons and other die-hard crowds within the camp. These people indulge in periodic hate-fest directed at other members of Somaliland communities by spewing visceral and unfounded allegations in every opportunity.

The case in point is Mohamed Samale, a.k.a. Mr. Samadile, who never misses an opportunity to slander certain groups and their god-given rights. Worse, he is allegedly the second ranking man in the House. It makes wonder what sort of self-respecting parliamentarian ethics would tolerate such demagogue in its midst, let alone to lead any one.

One more jaw-dropping incident is the president Silanyo's speech in which he said his priority is to take care of “mujahidis”-- a veiled code of old SNM membership and by extension a reminder of “us versus them’ of the past civil war. Add to that the stuffing of 75% of the cabinet posts with the his kinfolks and leaving other major native clans in the cold. An action like this, which marginalizes the citizenry even further, obliterates the very ad hominem argument for secession due to the hegemony by the South. It makes wonder if one kind of “domination” is holier than another.

Unlike Mohamed Egal whose tribal inclination used to be secondary to his political acumen and power delegation, Mr. Silanyo’s case follows the reverse order-- kinship comes first and everything else stays a distant second. Even Mr. Rayale, with his alleged authoritarian streak, was far removed from such crude practice. Their former ruling UDUB Party, in which many perceive as being the natural governing party, have shown plenty to emulate with respect to tolerance of like-minded folks with different backgrounds. True, people can change over time and forces of circumstance such as age and experience can have impacts but the chance of a complete metamorphoses is slim.

In any rate, the new president can do great things if there is a heartfelt change. If he is truly a reformed man, however noble rarity it may seem at this juncture, he can complete of whatever is left of his lengthy public persona with some transformative legacy in office and, among others, he should:

(1) Keep the shaky peace among Somaliland communities of both eastern and western regions. These tensions have territorial and political nature as well. Taking sides on the delicate balance can trigger an all out hostility in the land. He also should rein on xenophobic and bigotry elements within his camp. Lending an ear or eye to these hate merchant individuals can seriously compromise the legacy and credibility of any decent leadership.

(2) Expand the number of political parties beyond the arbitrary and clannish formula to four or five parties. Such move can increase the scope of civic participation and credibility level of the process. For instance, it seems ironic to boast about democratic values and fairness while forbidding the formation of moderate religious and or bigger nationalistic parties altogether. Remember the leader and his operative’s cries and hues about the incident of the so-called Qaran Party last year, which turned out to be Kulmiye’s franchise! It is high time for the leader to gets real and mandate genuine political parties, not useful templates. The reported 35% turn out of eligible (mainly women and youth) is an indication of public apathy towards the current system.

(3) Revisit the separation issues, its sustainability and obstacles. I’m not saying it is right or wrong per se, but examining advantages versus disadvantages associated with it in the face of regional economic and technological integrations is a wise approach. Being stuck in single word made in a hasty, emotional atmosphere over decades ago doesn’t make sense. Taking the ownership of Somalia’s cursed dossier instead of disavowing at all cost and extracting of whatever possibility that presents itself like consensual divorce; autonomous state, etc can be strategic move. It is a difficult undertaking but there are no other venues morally and legally speaking.

I’m not sure yet if the elected president or his inner circle will ever devote scarce attention and energy on these matters, but I’m sure they can be valuable alternative advice over the other stuff fielded by soothsayers and acolytes.

With the much-publicized Somaliland election over now and the victorious leadership settling in the den, no one knows as to what the future holds for the downtrodden masses. Routine elections or tribal populist message per se doesn’t mean anything in the real world. Whether this particular election is a game-changer in terms of the bigger picture of policy direction, security, socio-economic equity and vision or the politics of business as usual of the old status quo remains to be seen. It is too early to know the full picture, but situation seems less promising and the reason is simple: current events and track record of the leadership and other hardcore associates hold much of the clues. On other hand, the new leader can choose pragmatic shift for the sake of humanity thereby leaving behind some positive legacy for generations to come.

Mohamed A. Awale
E-Mail: Moe-awale@hotmail.com