Professor Said Samatar is a Somali Scholar who deserves respect for his scholarly work. He is one of the few Somali scholars who concern themselves with the complex and seemingly unsolvable Somali problem. He even risked his live by traveling to Mogadishu in the early days of the meltdown.  Some believe that he was chased from Mogadishu for his clan affiliation although many believe that he somehow angered the late General Aidid who did not like the message Professor Samatar carried from his American friends. The professor promised to tell us about the dangerous encounter with the General in other articles.

The professor seems to be carrying another message this time from his friends which most Somali Patriots will not receive kindly.

In a recent article “AMERICA, PRAY LEAVE SOMALIA TO ITS OWN DEVICES “, our esteemed professor argues that Somalis belong to a class of African peoples who are extremely egalitarian and stateless and that no one can force a central government on them since the notion of government is an alien concept in their cultural tradition.

His arguments strangely coincide with the views of a former US Ambassador who, when the central government collapsed, argued that Somalia was like a horse that could be led to the water but could not be forced to drink from it. The ambassador used the analogy to argue that Somalis did not want a central government and would revert to their clan divisions that developed over centuries before the colonialists imposed upon them the alien concept of statehood. After the state imposed by the colonialists collapsed, Somalia would never become a state again but descend into a patchwork of clan based enclaves.

The professor concludes that Somalia does not need a strong central government but a loose federation of four zones. He argues for setting up a commission of overseers composed of a representative from each of the four zones. The professor said:  “I would recommend the setting up of a commission of overseers composed of a representative from each of the four zones under a U.N.-appointed high commissioner.  Such a commission's task would be to take administrative responsibility for the four departments mentioned above, to arbitrate the likely territorial, political and economic disputes that are bound to arise among the four statelets stated above. “

His conclusion again seems to strangely coincide with the recent moves by the US government to adopt a new strategy that may eventually lead to the recognition of the breakaway enclave known as Somaliland. In my humble opinion, the strategy may also entail encouraging Punltand to form its own sovereign state that would eventually be recognized after introducing a voter registration system and free elections.

The strategy has been recently revealed in an article attributed to Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily. The paper argues that "The US took the unprecedented step, in March 2010, of inviting a major delegation of Cabinet members and officials from the Republic of Somaliland to Washington for a series of talks on the country's future. The move was tantamount to de facto recognition of Somaliland's sovereign status". The authenticity of the article is doubtful since It paints the leader of Kulmiye as a Unionist; some of the Kulmiye heavyweights such Dr. Gabose and Engineer Mohamed Hashi Elmi as Shebab sympathizers; Ucid as an NGO out to collect money from the Diaspora. Many believe that it is authored by the Udbub camp to discredit its opponents. However, there are strong signals that the US may be using Somaliland and Puntland as a last resort for stopping the growing influence of the Shebab movement. Recent efforts by the former Minister of Foreign affairs, Buba and the former mayor of Mogadishu Hassan Abshir to mediate between Somaliland and Puntland may have been funded by the US embassy in Kenya. There are indications that the leaders of the two enclaves had met several times in Ethiopia to settle their dispute over Las Anod and coordinate their efforts to stop the Shebab.

Out of the four zones mentioned by the professor, I could only recognize Somlailand and Puntland. The other two are a mystery to me and I could not figure them out. Since the Shebab is a force to be reckoned with controlling a major portion of the southern regions of the country, and will never settle for the division of Somalia into zones, the professor seems to be privy to the military campaign being prepared by the TFG and its allies to push the Shebab into oblivion, a strategy that failed before and is doomed to fail again.

While the title of the professor’s article seems to be calling for the United States and the World to leave Somalia alone, its contents seem to be suggesting a new approach for dealing with a difficult and troublesome people who pose a threat to world trade and stability: dividing Somalia into tiny, weak mini-states like the Republic of Djibouti.

Contrary to the arguments of the professor, Somalis are not averse to central authority. Old Somali folk tales talk about a powerful queen known as Arawelo who ruled Somalia with an iron fist. The book Futuh Al Habasha suggests that the Imam Ahmed Gurey ruled over most of present day Somalia. When he started his military campaigns against Abyssinia, his call for soldiers and supplies from all over the country were promptly answered, thus showing a form of a central command structure.

When the Sayed started his Dervish movement, many joined his campaign to evict the British colonialists from the country. The movement had a centralized structure that could have evolved into a system of central governance. It had a Shura Council known as the Khususi which acted as a council of advisors. The Sayed appointed governors in all areas under his control, and he used to send emissaries to those areas to follow up on their activities. The emissaries collected taxes and delivered messages from the Sayed. All Somali clans were represented in the Dervish struggle and joined it willingly. Sadly the British Raj eventually used its superior military hardware to subdue the movement and robbed Somalia of a potential homegrown system of government.

After the colonialists left the country, Somalia enjoyed 9 years of democratic rule that, although marred by corruption, could have transformed the country into a showcase for other African States. Sadly, a military dictatorship took over and eventually led the country into an abyss of misery and bloodshed, again with the blessing of the two superpowers that fought for hegemony over Africa in the cold war era.  All Somali attempts at creating a strong government have always been met with foreign interference and eventual collapse.

The professor also assumes that the Somali people are largely nomadic who still practice their ancient egalitarian and anarchic form of existence.  Because of prolonged draughts, widespread deforestation and unending conflict, most Somalis call refugee camps such as Xagarheer in Kenya home, where their children go to school and are all desperate for a government that provides them with the most basic necessities. A few more millions are scattered all over the world and are also desperate to return home after losing their children to alien and at times hostile cultures. Many lost their children to drugs and gangs.

I do agree with the professor on the title of his article: that Somalia should be left alone. In the absence of foreign interference, a structure that is satisfactory to all Somalis will eventually emerge. If the rule of the Imam and the Sayed were not brought down by the colonialists, Somalia would have evolved into a vibrant modern state like other sovereign countries have evolved over time.

The Islamic Courts is a good example of a nascent Somali solution that was nipped in the bud by America and its regional allies, Ethiopia and Kenya. The courts managed to spread over large areas of Somalia. They even had support among the populations of Somalialnd and Puntland. Many Somalis saw in them a way out of the scourges of warlords, corrupt rulers and traitors who are ready to sell their country to the highest bidder.

Many Somalis secretly admire the Shebab who, despite their excesses, can unite Somalia into a strong state that may demand the return of its lost territories from neighboring countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya. The Shebab movement can be compared to the Islamic Revolution in Iran. The students who toppled the Shah spearheaded the formation of a powerful country that uses Sharia Law and at the same time practices a form of democracy that has allowed it to become a force to be reckoned with in the Middle East after managing to decipher the technology required for taming nuclear energy to power its growth.

All revolutions begin with excesses and eventually settle down to a more pragmatic system. Although I am not a fan of the Shebab and have criticized their system many times, they represent a local force that has grown from the chaos. If Somalia is left alone to its own devices as the professor suggests, the success of the Shebab will depend on the Somali people who will either adopt their harsh form of Islam or reject them altogether in favor of the more moderate forms.
The Shebab themselves are full of young Somalis educated in the West who joined the movement to defend their country against the Ethiopian invasion. Once the Ethiopian threat recedes, many of them are likely to rebel against the harsh practices of the hardliners in the movement. Revolutions are by nature self-correcting.

Somalia has lost its sovereignty and its de-facto ruler is Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia. Just last week, the rulers of Somaliland and Puntland visited Ethiopia for consultations. Many believe that the consultations involve strategies to stop the Shebab who have recently reached the outskirts of Mudug region which is dangerously close to both enclaves. If Mudug falls into the hands of the Shebab, the road to Garowe and Hargeisa will be wide open.  Ethiopia, Kenya and their powerful ally, the US, are nervous and may repeat the same mistakes that led to the rise of the Shebab in the first place.

Ethiopia and the US would be ill-advised to interfere in the Somali conflict again. This will only help the Shebab with their recruitment drive and their ranks will swell to unprecedented numbers. Somalis are naturally averse to foreign intervention.

Let us hope that the US and its allies will take the title of the professor’s article at face value and stay out of Somalia for good. As for professor Samatar, we look forward to reading his other part as promised by Wardheernews.