The new president of Somaliland, Mr. Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo, unveiled the policies of his administration in his inaugural speech in Hargeisa, the capital city of Somaliland.The President's speech addressed the major challenges that are facing his administration and soon after offered the public the long awaited modern and lean cabinet that was marketed as an icon of efficiency. The small cabinet tabled by the president took the Somaliland people by surprise as its composition and distribution defied the long-established order and as such can safely be classed as a revolutionary one. The president appears determined to move the politics of Somaliland to a new realm which has its challenges and rewards – President Silanyo who is at the very end of his political shelf life is out there to make his own legacy but whether he ends up in the political wilderness of pre – Egal times ( SNM era) or becomes Nelson Mandella of Somalia remains to be seen.

President Silanyo

The new cabinet is much slimmer than that of his predecessors even though there is significant room for further trimming if the gist of the exercise is to deliver affordable and all inclusive one. Members who are counted to have soft belly for the secessionist  agenda has some presence  in the cabinet, but the majority have strong affiliations with the moderate mainstream Islamists (not the Shabab). With the exception of few, the bulk of the cabinet are novices to the region’s politics.  Kulmiye activists and the SNM veterans who were the back bone of the president’s campaign were left out on the wash line to dry while the election financiers (Islamist business community) are calling the shots – for instance Dahabshiil (the banker of Somalia) secured two important ministerial posts for his employees.

This virgin cabinet generated a lot of questions but none the less the inclusion of women in the cabinet is the most commendable ingredient of the incoming administration and an undisputable seal that this administration is taking risks to produce the change Kulmiye promised to deliver. Women casted half of the votes that put the administration in office and how ever meagre, three women, the reward their vote earned yet they are over the moon in light of the repressive tribal and Islamic values that confines them collectively to nonentity status – for instance the appointment of Ms. Samsam Abdi Adan for the Secretary of Education blessed by the moderate Islamists and secularists might attract the fury of her clansmen. I won’t be surprised if the rigid clan minded men construe the overdue rightful promotion of women as an affront to the male population of the clan and might even  go further to accuse the president of holding their clan in contempt as the primordial society adorn male representation above any thing else.  

The new cabinet: Initial Reactions from Somaliland

The political reality on the ground, clannish politics, is to be taken in to account to a certain extent but the right man for the right position must override it if one is to make a positive change – if two brothers can offer better service then that should take priority over clan window dressing. The foundation of Somaliland polity is built upon the consensus of the local community and that is what made Somaliland a giant in the eyes of the Somalis but Somaliland after nearly two decades needs to take a step further by electing politicians on their merits rather on their clan and gender and precisely that is what this small cabinet stands for.  

It is understood that the traditionalists who subscribe to the idea of a large inefficient administration in which excessive clan representation is of the essence quickly filled the web pages with negative propaganda against the small cabinet Somalilanders voted for and the same demonization propaganda filtered through to the masses which ultimately triggered a series of hasty protest demonstrations that was staged in Hargeisa and Borama – the cabinet is not even a week old. Certainly some politicians who have their personal agenda are blamed to be behind this upheaval and are capitalizing on some of the pitfalls of the small cabinet  (See in detail the Cabinet distribution ) – the administration is not only the cabinet but a lot of other meaningful and less expensive posts remain to be filled to compensate for whatever the cabinet is missing out.

Never before it happened in Somaliland that masses draped with the Blue Somali flag and some other strange flags, of which this was among many, come out to stage protest demonstrations.

Early reports confirm the injury and arrest of two and massive disruption to transport as the police turned in great numbers to restore order and to re - open the roads barricaded with burning tyres and stones.   

Having said so there are political forces who are colluding to undermine the new administration and some rumours are too disobliging for me to put on writing because in the event the rumours, which is at present confined to the agenda of the few materializes, its impact will result in the death of Somaliland as we know and a new  reality on the ground will emerge soon after -  there is strong rumour going around that Awdal and Salal regions are on the verge of declaring their own separate and independent administration like that of the SSC. Floods start with trickles so what is at stake, if the self centred politicians get their way, is not only the administration but the whole stability of the region and the mass exodus of the SCC people must serve as an example closer to home – ruthless politicians hiding behind clan masks appears to be taking Somaliland to an early grave unless saviours ( Somaliland elders) step in quickly before things fall apart.

The Empty Coffers: - the restocking challenge

The president in his inaugural speech admitted that he inherited coffers that were emptied out by the previous administration and much worse that the government is hugely in debt – the civil service were not paid for the last six months and the arrears is due to be paid by Silanyo government now and then. The bankruptcy of Somaliland is mainly a direct result of the huge military expenditure the previous administration incurred in pursuing its wrong footed war of conquest of the SSC people who are not party to the secessionist agenda of Somaliland.

The previous administration has no choice but to divert the limited revenue from Berbera port away from civil & social services to lubricate the war machine in Las Anod to pay the soldiers up front for fear that they desert the frontline. For obvious reasons the new administration can’t afford to continue financing the military expenditure which is getting larger by the day in the face of the unrelenting attacks of the armed SSC forces. The best conceivable option for Somaliland’s administration is to abruptly put to halt of the military option as it can’t realistically keep the momentum for a short period even if it wishes to do so for propaganda purpose -– quick withdrawal of the forces is cheaper and more honourable than an imminent and expensive defeat as the point of contention - secessionism VS unionism – is hard and long to bridge.

The new administration needs urgently to find new sources of revenue on the one hand and to re –structure the business licensing system, customs tariffs on the other hand. The customs’ excise must be discriminatory with regard to luxury items and non-productive automotives   - too many cars are dumped in Somaliland mainly due to the nominal levy the customs charge and the next to free running costs. Implementing a sort of Value added tax, tax on remittance and tax on labour wages and etc can generate locally a substantial wealth to take care of the debilitated civilian infrastructure.

It said that Somaliland is the only places on earth were a gang of four businessmen own and run it as they please – a little heaven for blood suckers. The famous four have the Import Licence, Whole sale Licence and retail Licence wrapped in to one safely in their pockets. Such practice (Monopoly) is against the free market rules because it takes out the competition factor which is essential for the generation of employment and the expansion of trade. The same four men import essential goods and then sell the goods to themselves under the hat of whole sale and finally delivers to the retailers in general and to their own retail outlets that are known to undersell the others – this system kills the retail industry that employs most of the labour force and thus shrinks the economy in general. The four have also got the exclusive monopoly of the haulage business from the port to the doors of the retail shops thus taking business away from small one man run bustling trucking business.

Eng. Mohamed Hashi

The finance Minister Eng. Mohamed Hashi Emli is famed for his rigorousness on the scrutiny of public finances and also for an incomparable boldness that demands equality in situations where many would like to look the other way. It is uncharacteristic of him to work outside the law which in Somaliland environment can quickly put him in the bad books of many including the president. The finance minister has the capacity and integrity to work as a chancellor in developed countries were the law is above everybody but is unfitting in corrupt third world countries unless President Ahmed Silanyo lives to his promise of clean government.

Most of the masses are confident that he will tackle the above mentioned distortions in the market by hitting the four where it hurts and
will definitely try to overhaul government revenue and finance system in its totality by introducing new taxes and or streamlining the existing ones but sadly the vested interests will give him a bleeding nose if the administration couldn’t stomach to stand by his side in solidarity. The general consensus of the people who follow Somaliland affairs is that he will be deserted and will be dismissed within the first six months and a lot of people will be surprised if he lasts a year – the only man who can change government finance will by fighting a lonely war that has the potentiality to sacrifice his job prematurely.

The SSC Question: - Ultra right secessionist view is the wrong tool for the job

The SSC question is not about grievances in relation to development projects or the likes as the new Somaliland president worded it in his speech but is Guinean ideological believe secessionism VS unionism. To address such a weighty issue both parties must be willing to make compromises and it is also mandatory that the actors to have strong support from their respective constituents if any meaningful understanding is to be achieved. The nonsense bloodletting between brothers and sisters can only be stopped through dialogue and negotiations with no preconditions attached to it - logic and sanity should be given a chance.

The best suggestion floating around in the Somali intellectual circles at the moment is for Somaliland’s new president to declare cessation of hostility and to pull out Somaliland troops from the SSC lands as the first step towards easing the tension. This step will give a breathing time for SSC and Somaliland to deliberate and iron out their differences over the secessionist issue (the sour grape) and to explore ways to circumvent the thorny issue. Trade and movement of people will resume and will rebuild the trust between the people that was trampled on by egocentric politicians.

Finally the traditional elders must be given a free hand to tackle the issue as they are the true representatives of the people on both sides of the war front. Unlike the politicians, who play selfish games to retain their seats, the elders have secure positions in the society and has nothing more in their hearts other than the wellbeing of their constituents at all times – durable solution to this politician created problem can only come from the traditional leaders.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The Ethiopian government should refrain to meddle in the affairs between Somaliland and the SSC as intervention will exacerbate an already ugly situation into a regional one, repeat of Buhoodle massacre should never be on the cards as there is no benefit for Ethiopia to reap by siding with one clan against the other.

Somaliland people should give an opportunity for Kulmiye to prove themselves and let us not forget the parliamentary and council elections are round the corner, you get to accept with grace the challenges democracy throws at you.

Mr. Abdikarim Buh
Email: abdikarimbuh@yahoo.com
WardheerNews contributor and political analyst based in London

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