No one could know, with any certainty, what the new “governance” will be like for Somalia, but it’s been hyped that it would be the end of the endless political and legal “transitional” states for the country onto a new formation of more, even provisionally, permanent political dispensation of powers with respected sovereignty.
To meet this deadline, a Road Map (RM) was adopted late last year in Mogadishu. Subsequently, some further facilitating principles, terms of references, and agreements among “Somali stakeholders” were established. These are referred to as Garowe Principles (I & II) and Galkacyo agreement; Garowe and Galkacyo being two cities in Somalia that the presumed “stakeholders” of all things in Somalia or South-Central Somalia had gathered.
These “stakeholders” include: 1) the current President of the TFG; 2) the current Prime Minister of Somalia (representing the Council of Ministers); 3) the “Speaker” of the current dysfunctional Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP); 4) the president of the semi-autonomous Puntland State; 5) the president of the Galmudug regional state (quasi-mini one city state next to Puntland); and 6) the representatives from the anti-Al-Shabab militia, Ahlu Sunna Wal Jameeca (ASWJ) that operates within Central and Southern Somalia.
Very recently, on May 23, 2012, the “stakeholders” agreed in Addis Ababa (the Addis Ababa agreement) on some last minute details of the Road Map and have committed themselves on specific schedules towards August 20th, 2012.
As per the recent Addis Ababa agreement, important critical milestones was established to be fulfilled within specified short period of time:
The involved international community (IC), and Turkey being its latest member, as well as the subsidiary regional governments have committed themselves on the August 20th, 2012 deadline and have instructed the Somali players to do the same.
Particularly important is the firm stances taken by the “absentee landlords” of the current “war-on-terror” and “piracy” focused policies towards Somalia – the US and the EU. The US and the EU are the primary funds-providers of the ongoing and presently promising UN Security Council mandated African Union peace making and keeping Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).
What could go wrong?
If there is a WILL there can always be a way or ways; and nothing should go wrong for Somalia!
Is there, then, a will?
For one thing, the current and previous so-called Somali political leaders have failed miserable their nation and people, so a “will” should not be expected from Somali players.
However, having IC- or “absentee landlords”-dictated set of demands on even these so-called Somali “leaders” can be an approach that could work if there is an actual will from the IC.
The needless caveat is whether or not there actually is/are WILL(s) from the IC and/or the “absentee landlords” in ensuring that Somalia’s decades-long political debacles end on August 20th, 2012.
If the answer is affirmative, and despite what may or may not be the internal issues/problems in Somalia, August 20th, 2012 can indeed be the end of the past and a new beginning for Somalia and the tired Somali masses.
Beggars’ don’t or can’t choose (an Arabic proverb). And certainly, enough is enough.
What is going on, in Somalia, towards the set August 20th, 2012 deadline?
As it stands, some significant signs indicate that the current South-Central Somalia’s political leaders are operating under the usual assumptions of “more of the same”.
Every one of them appears to be solidifying the grounds for their political survivals post August 20th, 2012.
Every one of them appears to be doing everything they can, politically, to paint the other or some other entities outside the present political processes as “spoilers”.
Every one of them, along with established connections in the Somali Diaspora, appears to be hoping the IC and the “absentee landlords” would buy only their political narratives.
Every one of them appears to be cementing their political end game by creating public confusions on even the crown jewel of the on-going process (the draft constitution).
Every one of them appears to be striving in ultimately corrupting the processes for the selection of the TL, the NCA, or the NFP.
In short, every one of them appears to be gearing up in buying the needed votes to secure their next top-level political office installment for the next “Somalia”.
To achieve this end “game plan”, the needed money is already in Somalia. For circumstantial evidences one only needs to read the recent World Bank Report on Somalia. In addition, more money has already made in its way to Somalia or would come in from the Middle East, from the International Criminal Court indicted leaderships of Sudan, from certain Diaspora Somalis, from unscrupulous internal Somali business, and lastly from entrenched Somali “mafia” groups both inside and outside the country.
Regardless, if the ongoing political campaigns/arrangements between certain political elements within and without the TFG remains as it is, the only thing that is certain is the continuation of the current status quo.
The question then becomes not of money issue but about on a will (particularly a will from the involved IC and regional governments).
Who has the WILL to see to that Somalia - post August 20th, 2012 – transitions from business as usual onto “something” different? Who, with detriment will-power, could/can offset the expected powers of the unscrupulous Somalis to afford the people of this once proud nation and people a fighting chance for a new future?
Would there be demonstrable WILL from the involved IC and their regional partners to ensure the end of piracy, Islamic extremism, and constant chaos in Somalia for its people and the world on August 20th, 2012– forcefully thus could tilt the teeter-totter balancing scale Somalia hinges on today towards the right direction,?
Let’s watch and wait; August 20th, 2012 is only some 60 days into the expected near future.
Abdiwahab Tarey, PhD
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